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你投的是「擁核」還是「廢核」？從關聯性分析初探「以核養綠」公投通過的原因
Do you vote for ＂pro or against nuclear＂? A preliminary relevance analysis of the reasons for the passage of the ＂Go Green with Nuclear ＂ referendum
摘要
公民投票的核心價值在於民主參與，讓公民得以參與重大公共政策之制定，並在開放的討論過程中讓多元意見充分表達，以此提升民眾對政策議題的了解。2018年11月的十項公投，從成案、辯論到投票，都壓縮在短短不到半年的時間，時程過於倉促，使得民眾無法從公共討論的過程中，獲得充分的資訊來判斷政策後果。此次公投和縣市長同時舉行投票，本文研究發現在臺北市、臺中市、高雄市的民眾越不滿意中央政府的施政表現、越認同國民黨、在縣市長選舉上越支持國民黨候選人，越傾向支持「反空污」及「反深澳電廠」公投。在臺北市和臺中市，民眾對政府的能源政策是否滿意，和這三項公投案並無相關性；在高雄市的民眾則出現越不滿意政府的能源政策，越不支持「以核養綠」公投，兩者出現負向關係。但以上四個變數，都和「以核養綠」公投並無正相關。本文再分析三項能源公投的關連性，發現「反空污」和「反深澳電廠」的相關性很高，但是「以核養綠」公投由於題目採取的是雙否定表述，這種表述方式對於投票的選民來說，有可能會造成違背其原本意志的投票行為。建議未來公投的題目應該正面表述，並延長成案到投票的審議時間，讓民眾有更多公共討論的空間，避免公投成為另一種政黨對決。
並列摘要
The core value of the referendum is democratic participation and allows citizens to participate in the formulation of major public policies. Multiple opinions can be fully expressed in the open discussion process to enhance the people's understanding of policy issues. In November 2018, ten referendums were implemented in less than half a year from the beginning, debating and to the voting. It was impossible for the public to obtain sufficient information from the process of public discussion and to judge the consequences of the policy. The ＂Anti-Air Pollution＂ and the ＂Anti-Shen-Ao Power Plant＂ and the ＂Go Green with Nuclear＂ referendums were passed and impacted on the DPP government's goal of ＂non-nuclear homeland in 2025＂ and the energy transition policy. Because the referendum and the county governor's vote were held at the same time, the research in this article found that people in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung city who were more dissatisfied with the performance of the central government, the more agreed with the KMT, and the more supported KMT candidates in county and city mayoral elections, they were more inclined to support the ＂anti-air pollution＂ and ＂anti-Shen-Ao power plant＂ referendum. In Taipei and Taichung city, whether the people are satisfied with the government's energy policy is not related to these three referendums. People in Kaohsiung city appear to be dissatisfied with the government's energy policy and dissatisfied with the ＂Go Green with Nuclear＂ referendum. The two have a negative relationship. None of the above four variables has any relevance to the ＂Go Green with Nuclear＂ referendum. This article analyzes the relevance of the three referendums and finds that the correlation coefficient of the people who voted for the ＂anti-air pollution＂ and ＂anti-Shen-Ao power plant＂ referendums is very high. The ＂Go Green with Nuclear＂ referendum adopted a double-negative expression on the subject, and this expression method may cause voting behavior against the original will of the voters who voted. It is suggested that the topic of future referendum should be expressed positively. The referendum should extend the time from establishment to voting, so that the people have more space for public discussion and avoid the referendum becoming another kind of party showdown.