臺灣、日本及韓國LNG進口價格關係之研究

Study on the Relationship of LNG Import Price among Taiwan, Japan and Korea

施沛宏(Pei-Hung Shih) ； 吳榮華(Jung-Hua Wu)

《臺灣鑛業》 66卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 10-19

摘要

2011年日本福島核災後，臺灣頒布「新能源政策」，為達成綠能低碳環境目標，未來增加天然氣的使用為必然之趨勢，因此，對於其價格波動之掌握即顯得格外重要。臺灣、日本及韓國由於地理環境及地緣政治因素，天然氣進口皆需以液化天然氣（LNG）型態進口，LNG進口價格主要以JCC為指標，在趨勢上均具有正相關之關係，因此，可嘗試應用時間序列方法探討3國價格之關係。本研究以共整合分析討論臺灣、日本及韓國LNG進口價格，探討其長期均衡、短期互動及因果關係，其結果顯示日本與韓國在長期和臺灣具有均衡趨勢（具有共整合關係），且在因果關係上，日、韓對臺灣均有單向之影響關係。

關鍵字

液化天然氣 ； 共整合分析

並列摘要

Taiwan government issued ”The New Energy Policy” after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, the volumes of natural gas consumption in Taiwan is planned to increase for creating a green energy environment in the future. Therefore, it is important to investigate the price volatility of natural gas. Because of the geographical and geopolitical factor in Taiwan, Japan and Korea, they all have to import LNG (liquefied natural gas) to meet domestic demand. Since LNG import prices are mainly linked to JCC, this research is trying to apply time series method to examine the relationship among these three countries' LNG prices. This study applies cointegration analysis to examine the long-run equilibrium, short-run fluctuations and causality relationship of the LNG import prices of Taiwan, Japan and Korea. The result indicates that Japan and Korea LNG import prices have the cointegration relationship with Taiwan LNG import prices, and there are unidirectional causalities from Japan and Korea to Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

LNG (liquefied natural gas) ； cointegration analysis