摘要
今年石油市場大致上是達平衡的，但政策風險不易預測，卻往往比潛在的基本因素更具影響力。OPEC及其夥伴國雖舉足輕重，但石油市場仍受到一些政策的牽動，特別是美國的動作。去年下半年，大型頁岩油氣公司的成長多半已呈現平滑化，較小型公司液裂活動明顯減緩。最活絡的二疊紀盆地之鑽井活動如今似已達到了高原期，但其產量仍在成長，且可能持續幾年，一些較小的公司逐漸被大公司併購。美國的液裂活動有一個「雙速」現象，在頁岩油氣產區尤其是二疊紀盆地，一方面中小型公司縮減支出，另一方面大型公司則增加支出。美國油氣產量近五年來的大幅成長歸因於在較地質條件較佳的二疊紀盆地採油，一般的看法是，二疊紀產量將在2020年代初期之後減緩。在技術上，頁岩公司正面臨一項嚴重的問題，一些新井（加密井／子井）的產量比母井少了一半，因為地層壓力的下降及儲集層的受損，致最終採收量反而減少。另一問題是，油氣採收過程中的甲烷排放量很可觀，對氣候變遷有相當的衝擊，是難處理的問題。
並列摘要
It is expected that the oil market should be mostly balanced this year, albeit the policy risk will play a more important role in driving oil prices than the underlying fundamentals. OPEC+ also has huge influence over crude prices, but the oil market is largely affected by a handful of policy decisions, many of which will be made by the U.S. government. Many of the key operators have exhibited a largely flat trend from June to October 2018, which implies that the wide deceleration in fracking activity has a more significant implication for smaller operators in contrast to the major players in the Permian. Drilling in the Permian seemed to plateau recently, but production is still growing. It is expected that Permian production will continue to grow for years to come, but the region is increasingly dominated by the oil majors rather than small shale companies. Obviously, there is a sort of two-speed environment proceeding right now - a spending slowdown by small and medium-sized companies in the Permian, while the oil majors are expanding. Shale companies are cutting spending, but the contraction is being offset by the expansion plans by the oil majors. In simple terms, we can attribute the strength of U.S. production since the 2014 oil crash to the good geological condition, and the commercial exploitation of a higher quality shale resource, namely the Permian oil field. Most forecasters agree that Permian oil production will flatten in the near future and a slowdown in production growth will happen in the early 2020s. Technically, the wells are not producing as much oil and gas as they had anticipated. Some of the newer wells are producing about 50 percent less than the parent wells. Actually, adding more wells may result in less oil and gas recovered as the pressure drops and the reservoir suffers damage. Besides, the major climate trouble comes from higher methane emissions associated with upstream production. CO2 emissions remain enormous and a massive problem to tackle. U.S. shale drillers are facing a serious problem.