- 期刊
臺灣2050淨零排放路徑及策略之綜析
A Comprehensive Analysis of Taiwan's 2050 Net-Zero Emission Path and Strategies
摘要
因應氣候變遷，淨零碳排放已成為國際趨勢，面對這股轉型浪潮，政府在2022年3月底提出臺灣2050淨零排放路徑圖，揭露外界最關注的能源配比數字，推估2050年再生能源將占總電力供應的60%至70%、氫能占9%至12%，火力加上碳捕捉、利用與封存技術（CCUS）約占20%至27%，抽蓄水力占1%。產業界高度關注前述淨零排放路徑圖，因為其中牽涉到政府電力基礎設施規劃、供電穩定等面向；但淨零排放不只是產業界關切的事，其中如2040年新售汽機車全面電動化、近零碳建築等政策，也與民眾息息相關。依據政府的規劃，目前至2030年為短期，目標是「低碳」，2030年至2050年是長期，目標是「零碳」發展，同時推動能源、產業、生活、社會等四大面向的轉型。經此努力後，期能達到三大目的：首先是政府帶動民間投資4兆元；其次進口能源依存度由2021年的97.4%，降至2050年的50%以下；第三是提升生活品質及環境永續發展，2030年較2019年減少空污量約30%。本篇研究報告，首先闡述臺灣2050淨零排放路徑及策略與IPCC AR6減緩氣候變遷報告相契合，並與主要國家2050淨零碳排路徑相互比較，其次研析再生能源在能源轉型的重要性及是淨零轉型不可或缺的要角，最後提出2050淨零碳排路徑之挑戰與影響，期能作為臺灣在實現淨零轉型的關鍵時刻的重要參考依據。
並列摘要
In response to climate change, net-zero carbon emissions have become an international trend. Facing this wave of transformation, the government proposed Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emissions roadmap at the end of March 2022, revealing the energy ratio figures that are most concerned by the outside world, and estimating renewable energy in 2050. Energy will account for 60% to 70% of the total electricity supply, hydrogen 9% to 12%, thermal power plus carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) about 20% to 27%, and pumped hydro 1% . The industry pays close attention to the aforementioned net-zero emissions roadmap, because it involves government power infrastructure planning, power supply stability and other aspects; but net-zero emissions are not just a matter of concern to the industry, such as the full electrification of newly sold cars and locomotives in 2040, Policies such as near-zero carbon buildings are also closely related to the people. According to the government's plan, the current period to 2030 is the short-term, the goal is ＂low carbon＂, and the long-term period from 2030 to 2050 is the ＂zero-carbon＂ development, while promoting the transformation of energy, industry, life, and society. . After this effort, it is expected to achieve three goals: firstly, the government will drive private investment of 4 trillion yuan; secondly, the dependence on imported energy will drop from 97.4% in 2021 to below 50% in 2050; the third is to improve the quality of life and Environmentally sustainable development, reducing air pollution by about 30% in 2030 compared with 2019. In this research report, firstly, it expounds that Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emissions path and strategies are in line with the IPCC AR6 climate change mitigation report, and compares it with the 2050 net-zero carbon emissions path of major countries. Second, it analyzes the importance of renewable energy in energy transition and It is an indispensable part of the net-zero transition. Finally, the challenges and impacts of the 2050 net-zero carbon emission path are proposed, which can serve as an important reference for Taiwan at the critical moment of realizing the net-zero transition.