- 期刊
2023年COP28氣候峰會的挑戰與展望
Challenges and Prospects for the 2023 COP28 Climate Summit
摘要
COP28會議於2023年11月30日至12月12日在阿拉伯聯合大公國杜拜召開，是各國領袖、菁英聚首談判的氣候大會。2015年COP21達成了具有里程碑意義的《巴黎協定》，各國承諾在本世紀實現溫室氣體淨零排放，並將全球平均變暖限制在比工業化前水準高1.5°C以內。2023年是談判大年，全球減排與能源轉型、調適與損失損害、資金與技術支援、化石燃料退場，以及《巴黎協定》後首次全球盤點等均是關注的重點議題。各界對這場會議的結果從絕望到審慎樂觀都有，但幾乎人人都會同意一點：有效的氣候行動刻不容緩。大會因淘汰化石燃料陷入僵持，延會1天終於達成協議呼籲「以公正、有序與公平的方式逐漸擺脫能源系統中的化石燃料，俾使在符合科學的情況下，於2050年實現淨零排放」；另呼籲到2030年全球再生能源產能提高兩倍、加速減少煤炭使用，以及加快CCS等技術的發展。本篇研究報告首先探討歷年成功的COP會議及其貢獻，其次統整COP28會前相關氣候峰會的討論與決議事項（包括6月的波昂氣候變遷會議、9月的非洲氣候峰會、G20領導人峰會、以及第78屆聯合國大會期間可持續發展目標和氣候雄心兩個峰會，各峰會都呼籲COP28時全球要加快氣候行動），再綜析COP28氣候峰會的關鍵議題與重要成果。臺灣今年派代表參加氣候峰會應會有所獲益，未來亦應配合國際積極推動能源轉型，邁向淨零碳排路徑，惟在執行方面仍將面臨相當大的挑戰。
並列摘要
The COP28 conference will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 12, 2023. It is a climate conference where leaders and elites from various countries gather for negotiations. The landmark Paris Agreement was reached at COP21 in 2015, in which countries committed to achieving net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases this century and limiting average global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 2023 is a big year for negotiations, with key issues of concern such as global emissions reduction and energy transition, adaptation and loss and damage, financial and technical support, the exit of fossil fuels, and the first global stocktake after the Paris Agreement. Opinions on the outcome of the conference range from despair to cautious optimism, but almost everyone can agree on one thing: effective climate action cannot be delayed. The conference reached a stalemate over the phase-out of fossil fuels, and after a one-day postponement finally reached an agreement calling for "a gradual transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system in a just, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in a scientifically sound manner emissions"; it also called for tripling global renewable energy production capacity by 2030, accelerating the reduction of coal use, and accelerating the development of technologies such as CCS. This research report first discusses the successful COP meetings over the years and their contributions, and secondly integrates the discussions and resolutions of relevant climate summits before COP28 (including the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June, the African Climate Summit in September, and the G20 leaders summit, as well as the two summits on Sustainable Development Goals and Climate Ambition during the 78th United Nations General Assembly, each summit called for the world to accelerate climate action at COP28), and then comprehensively analyze the key issues and important results of the COP28 Climate Summit. Taiwan should benefit from sending representatives to participate in the climate summit this year. In the future, it should cooperate with the international community in actively promoting energy transformation and moving towards a net-zero carbon emission path. However, it will still face considerable challenges in implementation.