經濟政策不確定性對分析師股票推薦從眾行為的影響

The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Analysts' Herding Behavior in Stock Recommendations

林美珍(Mei-Chen Lin) ； 林于令(Yu-Ling Lin) ； 王思芳(Szu-Fang Wang) ； 呂美惠(Mei-Hui Lu) ； 董孟雲(Meng-Yun Dong)

《證券市場發展季刊》 36卷1期 (2024/03) Pp. 71-120

https://doi.org/10.6529/RSFM.202403_36(1).0002

摘要

本研究檢驗經濟政策不確定性是否會影響分析師的從眾傾向，研究結果顯示分析師確實存在從眾行為，而且經濟政策不確定會強化分析師的從眾行為，這結果在排除分析師享有共同資訊、排除重複發佈相同推薦評等、使用不同的共識定義，以及控制法規變化、投資人情緒和未來整體股票報酬不確定之後仍然存在。經濟政策不確定對於分析師從眾行為的影響，對於小型股、成長型和低機構持股的公司較為明顯，而且主要發生於非經常修正推薦評等的分析師。

關鍵字

經濟政策不確定性 ； 推薦評等 ； 從眾行為 ； 證券分析師

並列摘要

This study examines whether economic policy uncertainty affects analysts' herding tendency. The results indicate that analysts do exhibit herding behavior, and economic policy uncertainty intensifies their herding behavior. These findings remain even after controlling for analysts' access to common information, excluding reannouncements of identical recommendations, using different consensus definitions, and controlling for regulatory changes, investor sentiment, and future aggregate stock return uncertainty. The impact of economic policy uncertainty on analysts' herding behavior is more pronounced for small-cap stocks, growth-oriented companies, and companies with low institutional ownership. Additionally, the phenomenon primarily occurs among analysts who do not frequently revise their recommendations.

並列關鍵字

economic policy uncertainty ； stock recommendations ； herding behavior ； financial analysts

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