反貪倒扁運動的支持度之多層次貝式定理分析

過去政治學界忽略了新興民主化國家中常見的政治社會運動，而反貪倒扁運動是一個很好的案例。本研究以一種巨視的角度，來觀察該運動所反映出的民意。過去的研究指出，南部民眾對於民進黨的支持較為穩定，而且此次反貪倒扁運動在台北地區反應熱烈，在南部地區則是出現民眾與該運動成員衝突的現象。因此，反貪倒扁似乎是一個侷限在北部地區的訴求。由於貝式估計允許研究者使用各種資訊以改善估計，因此本研究依據時間點將資料劃分為兩部分，經過WinBUGS分析得到第一個時間點的估計，投入做為事前資訊以估計第二部分的參數。本研究發現，不同區域對於支持倒扁運動的確有不同程度的差異。再以各地的台灣人認同與泛綠陣營支持者人數做為更新各地支持倒扁運動程度的資訊，發現兩者並無顯著影響，參數估計則顯示大台北、北縣基隆、桃竹苗及宜花東等地區支持該運動的程度較高。

Keywords

反貪倒扁運動；貝式定理分析；階層模型

Parallel abstracts

In June, 2006, the prosecutors began investigating President Chen's use of the special fund. Shih Ming-teh, the former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), urged the president to step down for his alleged involvement in the corruption scandal. Shih then initiated a campaign to oust President Chen Shui-bian. At the beginning, the anti-Chen rally was held on Ketagalan Boulevard, Taipei City. It extended to the rest of country in a month. The extent to which people supporting the anti-Chen campaign in each area is a good case study of the mass movement, which is recently overlooked by political scientists. Using the multi-level Bayesian analysis, this research assesses the supporting rate of the anti-Chen rally in each of the seven regions in several ways. It is concluded that the northern Taiwan indeed lent more support to the anti-Chen movement more than the other regions did.