地緣因素與新現實主義－以冷戰後中美地緣競逐為例

Geopolitical Factors and Neorealism: A Case Study of US-China Geopolitical Competition after the Cold War

張登及(Teng-Chi Chang)

《政治學報》 Issue 45 (2008/06) Pp. 95-137

https://doi.org/10.6229/CPSR.2008.45.04

Abstracts

K. WaItz在1970年代末創建的新現實主義（neorealism），由於推論嚴謹簡明，被認為是國際關係理論的一大突破。而J. Mearsheimer則自1990年代初起成為新現實主義主要命題的捍衛者。但Mearsheimer在推廣新現實主義時，為了解釋Waltz理論原型產生的一些異例，其實對新現實主義做了重要的補充與修正，這些修正的一個重要核心，就是地緣因素。Mearsheimer為新現實主義所新增的地緣因素文可以區分為三個變項：（1）地面力量的首要性；（2）海洋對國家軍力投射的阻礙；（3）國家共享邊界對戰略選擇的影響。透過這些更新，Mearsheimer進一步論證了陸權大國的攻勢傾向與海權大國保持「離岸平衡手」的合理性，這些新要素是Waltz理論原型所不具備的。本文將以冷戰結束之後（1990～2005年），美國與中國大陸在東北亞與中亞的地緣競逐為案例，探討新現實主義原型與Mearsheimer修正的有效性。同時，筆者透過上述討論，也對新現實主義發展的理論意涵提出若干反思。初步結論是：（1）地緣因素與單位層次（unit level）的其他因素直接有關，應視為是單位層次的變項；（2）因此Mearsheimer新增的地緣因素恐陷入Waltz所極力避免的「簡約理論」（reductionist theory），使新現實主義的簡潔優勢受到折損（3）Mearsheimer理論更新的有用性，叉可能顯示新現實主義基本假定內部的重要缺口，而將成為未來理論再調整的契機。

Keywords

新現實主義 ； 地緣政治 ； 國際關係理論 ； 離岸平衡手 ； 中美關係

Parallel abstracts

It is now widely accepted that neorealism founded by Kenneth N. Waltz has dominated IR studies for the last 25 years due to its theoretical parsimoniousness and simplicity. After neorealism experienced various challenges from schools such as neoliberalism and post-mosernism in the 1980s, this theory regained its commanding highs by the revisions from both offensive and defensive realists in the 1990s. Among the new inputs into neorealism, the author will argue, John J. Mearsheimer's offensive version of neorealism is the most notable and compelling drive which has sharpened and advanced the exploration of the essence and strength of neorealism. What Mearsheimer has contributed are mainly geographic factors, which have no place in Waltz's prototype: the primacy of land power, the stopping power of large bodies of water, and the role of the ”off-shore balancer”.This research examines both Waltz and Mearsheimer's propositions against US-China geographic competitions surrounding China after the Cold War. The focus is located in Northeast Asia and Central Asia, where another two great powers are involving the game: Japan and Russia. The findings of this research, while partly confirmed Mearsheimer's predictions in Northeast Asia, provide a few anomalies which deserve further reflection. The author would argue that exceptions appear because Mearsheimer further naturalized and reified the neorealist model. In effect, Waltz has allowed the legitimacy of these exceptions by relaxing his positivist and determinist stance: a possible opening to a more classical IR approach advocated by Morgenthau and others, in which ”politics” can reclaim its place in political studies.

Parallel keywords

neorealism ； geopolitics ； international relations theory ； off-shore balancer ； US-China relations

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