- 期刊
Reflecting Zeitenwende or Reconfirmation With Convention? Reviewing Germany's Indo-Pacific Policy
反應外交政策轉折點還是路徑依循？檢視德國的印太政策
摘要
This paper is an examination of Germany's Indo-Pacific policy contents and early assessment on its effects. The examination would be conducted within the context of Germany's foreign policy conventions, while the policy effects would be assessed according to the objectives that Germany's Indo-Pacific policy claims to achieve. This paper argues that five guiding principles of German foreign policy conventions were not revolutionized with a Zeitenwende (historic turning point) as they were suggested. They only became more realistic and adaptive. What has been witnessed notable changes was in its Indo-Pacific policy. While adhering to Atlanticism and multilateralism, the policy demonstrated nuances in military restraint, selective application of European solidarity, and partial revision to Wandel durch Handel (change through trade). Measuring with its policy goals, the Indo-Pacific policy delivered only partial effects during its two-year implementation. It has been contributive in maintaining a rules-based order and stability of the region, but ineffective in diversifying its economic overdependence of China. Such ineffectiveness highlighted that the German foreign policy conventions of separating economic and trade issues from security and military ones-upholding Atlanticism in parallel with Wandel durch Handel, could no longer work in the Indo-Pacific policy, due to the different nature of German business interests in China from those with Russia. The dual goals of Germany's Indo-Pacific policy-preserving a stable regional order and diversification, could only succeed together or fail together. This paper accordingly suggests the German government to take on the real elephant in the policy-the China issue, and demonstrate the leadership and political willingness to forge an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA) at the earliest possible so as to effectively diversify geopolitical risks for German businesses.
並列摘要
本文檢視德國印太戰略的政策內容及對其三年來產生的政策效果作一早期評估。政策內容的檢視係以德國外交政策中的五項核心指導原則為觀察指標，政策效果的評估係以其所欲達成的政策目標為評量。經檢視後，本文認為德國外交政策中的五項指導原則並未隨烏克蘭戰爭所引發的轉折點（德語為Zeitenwende，英語為historic turning point）而出現本質性的改變，但五項政策傳統在德國的印太政策上表現出可觀察到的變化。德國的印太政策持續遵循大西洋主義、多邊主義的外交傳統，但在軍事克制、歐洲團結原則、貿易帶來改變（德語為Wandel durch Handel，英語為change through trade）等三項政策傳統上出現程度不一的改變與修正。以其政策成效而言，德國在此區罕見的軍事行動，儘管難以量化其效果，確有助於其維繫印太地區秩序穩定的政策目的，但其對中國經濟持續、且擴大的市場依賴，卻使得該政策所欲達成的風險分散之目的完全無法達成。此一事實說明了過去德國政策區隔經貿與軍事安全議題的分離作法－同時奉行大西洋主義與對威權政體的貿易改變政策，無法在印太政策中持續有效。由於德國對中的利益性質，德國印太政策的雙元目標－維持印太地區的秩序與穩定以及分散市場風險，兩者不是同時成功，就是同時失敗，本文因此建議德國展現出領導力，盡早完成歐盟－東協自貿協議，以有效降低中國市場因素對其印太政策有效性的制約。