地方行銷對供需法則影響之研究－以預測模式探討黑鮪魚文化觀光季

在自由經濟制度下的市場經濟活動，市場的交易活動必須要在買賣雙方的需求與供給才能發生，需求與供給組成供需法則也就是市場機制，而供需法則是市場經濟活動的重要因素。市場需求的變動有兩種情形，一是需求量的改變，一是需求的改變，本研究探討地方行銷對於供需法則影響中市場需求與價格間的變動。個案研究中分別以兩種預測方式，迴歸預測與灰色預測，透過對於東港黑鮪魚的平均價格預測，探討屏東縣政府舉辦之黑鮪魚文化觀光季對於黑鮪魚銷售上的影響，其結果證實地方行銷對於市場機制中市場需求與價格問的變動確有影響。

關鍵字

地方行銷；灰色預測；供需法則

並列摘要

Under free economic system, the market transaction activities are able to occur only in the supply and demand of buyer and seller. The supply and demand are composed of law of supply and demand that is market mechanism, while law of supply and demand is the important factor of market economic activity. The change of market demand includes the change in the quantity demanded and the change in demand. This research aims to study the influence of place marketing on law of supply and demand in the change of market demand and price. The case study uses regressive forecasting and Grey forecasting separately. Through average price forecasting of bluefin tuna in Tong Kang, this research studies the influence of bluefin tuna tourism season, held by Pingtung County government, on bluefin tuna sale. The result of this research be proved there have some influence of place marketing on market mechanism in the change of market demand and price.