Predicting Intentions of Forest Fire Preventive Behavior: An Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action

森林防火行為意願預測－理性行為理論之應用

林朝欽(Chau-Chin Lin) ； William E. Hammitt

《台灣林業科學》 14卷4期 (1999/12) Pp. 355-365

https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.199912.0355

摘要

人為因素是台灣林火引起之主因，故建構一套具社會因子之林火預測系統，以協助林業人員預知林火危險度至為需要。本研究之目的在檢視社會心理學領域中行為理論之一－理性行為理論之適用性，並據以建構－可運用於林火危險預測之觀念模式及其實證測試。本研究應用行為理論建構－觀念模式以作為預測森林防火意願之用，此模式包含七個變項：用火行為意願、用火態度、用火社會規範、個人對用火之注重、過去用火經驗、用火態度理念及用火社會規範理念。模式測試選取前往登玉山之遊客，於1998年8月至1999年2月間取樣訪問，共計訪問得完整樣本290個。首先應用相關分析探討變項間的相關程度，結果顯示森林用火行為意願與態度、社會規範、個人注重和過去經驗呈顯著相關：其次應用多元迴歸分析用火行為意願與態度、社會規範、個人注重及過去經驗之關係，結果顯示用火行為意願預測迴歸式具高預測能力(R^2=0.83)。本研究結果建議：理性行為理論可結合既有之林火生物性危險度系統，以預測人為性林火現象。

關鍵字

理性行為理論 ； 林火危險 ； 行為意願 ； 態度 ； 行為理念

並列摘要

The main purposes of this study are to construct a fire-risk prediction model based on a social psychology theory and to test the constructed model. Modifying the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), a conceptual model including 7 variables of fire-use intentions was constructed in this study. Two hundred and ninety hikers (n=290) traveling on the Yushan Trail from August 1998 to February 1999 were sampled to test the proposed model. The proposed model showed significant correlation between fire behavioral intentions and attitude, subjective norm, personal importance, and past experience concerning fire usage. The proposed model then was tested through multiple regression analysis. The regression coefficient is significant (R^2=0.83). The results of the present study suggest that social psychological theories, such as the Theory of Reasoned Action, can be adopted to help in the construction of a human-caused fire predicting system in the future.

並列關鍵字

Theory of Reasoned Action ； fire risk ； intention ； attitude ； belief