臺灣在美中互動中的第三方影響

Taiwan's Triangular Effect in U.S.-China Interactions

黎寶文(Pao-wen Li)

《遠景基金會季刊》 Volume 18 Issue 4 (2017/10) Pp. 1-59

Abstracts

臺灣作為三角關係中的弱小第三方，如何影響美中互動？本文擬利用1995年至2015年的事件資料，分析驗證與臺灣相關之行為是否影響美中關係。若是，本文將嘗試分析臺灣如何影響美中互動。統計分析顯示，臺灣較少直接影響美中互動，但是臺灣第三方影響在美中關係中仍然扮演間接角色。對中國而言，臺美互動可能改變中國面對美中臺三方博弈的利益計算。對美國而言，美國對中決策常隨美國對臺政策而自我調整，此現象顯示美國長期透過國內決策過程追求兩者均衡。

Keywords

三角關係 ； 美中關係 ； 臺灣 ； 第三方影響 ； 事件資料

Parallel abstracts

As a weak actor in the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle, what is Taiwan's role in influencing interaction between the United States and China? This paper analyzes the events from 1995 to 2015 to investigate the power of Taiwan-related behaviors in explaining the variations in U.S.-China relations. Statistical analysis in this paper suggests the existence of Taiwan's indirect triangular effect on U.S.- China relations but direct influence from Taiwan is not as significant as expected. Taiwan's indirect triangular effect works in different forms for the United States and China. For China, it is clear that China's cost-benefit analysis in the strategic triangle is influenced by U.S.-Taiwan interactions. For the United States, the statistical result suggests the policy toward Taiwan often leads to policy adjustments toward China, which show a clear preference of the United States to balance cross-Strait relations through its domestic policy-making process.

Parallel keywords

Triangular Relations ； U.S.-China Relations ； Taiwan ； Triangular Effect ； Event Data

References

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