統戰、銳實力、還是認知作戰？一個分析中共對臺宗教工作混合式影響力的架構

民間交流一直是兩岸關係中發展最快速也最相對穩定的層面，但兩岸長期以來也一直都有提防「和平演變」與拒絕「統戰」之爭，其中兩岸宗教交流所衍生的統戰問題，一直在臺灣社會中有極大的爭議。支持交流者認為這是人民言論與結社自由的權利，而且臺灣蓬勃發展的宗教市場足以彰顯臺灣的「軟實力」去影響中國，而反對者直指這是中國「統戰」、「銳實力」或「認知作戰」的一環，透過臺灣內部特定的宗教團體扮演「中共代理人」，去影響臺灣的輿論、扭曲選舉的結果或反對政府的政策。本文藉由比較三種研究範式中呈現的定義、操作標準與分析上的優缺點，進一步梳理目前宗教交流研究呈現的各項議題成果與不足之處，嘗試為這個重要問題提出有意義的討論方向，並提出「混合式影響力分析」的概念，作為分析威權政權利用不同手段組合與交錯運用影響力輸出工具的新視角，期望作為今後政策辯論的基礎，以及未來研究時的理論參考。

關鍵字

統一戰線；銳實力；認知作戰；兩岸關係；兩岸宗教交流

並列摘要

Civil society exchanges are growing rapidly and are the most stable dimension of cross-Strait relations. They currently play a role in sustaining an uneasy peace across the Strait, but China is alarmed by the possible "peaceful transformation" of these activities, and Taiwan is troubled by the "united front" problem that comes with these types of relations. Among all, religious exchanges have caused the most heated debate in Taiwanese society. While supporters believe they represent the benefits of civil liberties and the soft power of Taiwanese society to influence China, critics argue that these activities are embedded with Chinese "united front," "sharp power" or "cognitive warfare" operations, because some religious organizations play the role of "Chinese agents" to influence public opinion, elections, or government policies in Taiwan. This paper compares the definitions, measurements, and strengths and weaknesses from three groups covered in the literature, and uses the knowledge to reexamine the current findings of cross-Strait religious exchanges. The author proposes a new "hybrid influence analysis" to address the overlooked fact that authoritarian regimes often mix and combine these tools in their influence operations. This new approach could generate more comprehensive academic research, more thoughtful public conversations and hopefully serve as a reference for policy discussion in the future.