從認知作戰策略觀點檢驗中共的推特戰狼外交

自2019年下半年起，因應「美國優先」的強硬外交作為，中國在經濟、軍事和其他領域實力提升下，擺脫過去溫和與觀望的外交政策，轉為積極向外擴張的強勢風格，西方媒體提出「戰狼外交」一詞，用以描述部分中國政府官員於COVID-19大流行期間激進且咄咄逼人的外交發言，中國正運用「戰狼外交」手段試圖爭取國際話語權，以求達成對國際進行「認知作戰」之目的。本文以資料科學與人工智慧為取徑，蒐集2020年至2021年中國外交部發言人華春瑩及趙立堅之推特（Twitter）推文，以主題模型與BERT、社會網絡分析等人工智慧方式分析其議題內容與情緒操弄策略。呈現中國「戰狼外交」與「認知作戰」的策略與分工態樣，研究結果顯示，戰狼外交是影響國際認知的重要手段。包含「涉美、人權、疫情等議題」均是主要的戰狼主軸；同時筆者亦發現，戰狼外交在整體中共外交體系中的分工明確，從中央、駐外使節、參贊與國外其他國家的外交官等，交織成認知作戰的網絡。

關鍵字

認知作戰；戰狼外交；社群媒體；情緒渲染；大外宣

並列摘要

Since the second half of 2019, in response to the United States' "America First" policy, China has shifted from its previous moderate and observant foreign policy to an assertive and outwardly expanding style with increased strength in economy, military and other fields. Western media have coined the term "wolf warrior diplomacy" to describe radical and aggressive statements during the COVID-19 pandemic by some Chinese diplomats. China is using "wolf warrior diplomacy" to try to gain international discourse power and wage cognitive warfare on the international stage. This study uses data science and artificial intelligence to collect the Twitter posts of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying and Zhao Lijian from 2020 to 2021, and analyzes their content and emotional manipulation strategies through artificial intelligence methods such as topic modeling, BERT, and social network analysis. It presents the strategies and patterns of China's "wolf warrior diplomacy" and cognitive warfare. The research results show that "wolf warrior diplomacy" is an important means of influencing international perceptions. "Issues related to the United States, human rights, and the pandemic" are all major themes of wolf warrior diplomacy. At the same time, this research also finds that "wolf warrior diplomacy" has a clear division of labor in the overall Chinese foreign policy system, interwoven with the network of cognitive warfare from the central government, foreign missions, participants and foreign diplomats in other countries.