Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 in the ASEAN countries using a Genetic Partial Fitting Algorithm with the Presence of a Second Wave

Venansius R. Tjahjono ； Hengky Kurniawan ； Amirul Hakam ； Endah R.M. Putri ； Hadi Susanto

《淡江理工學刊》 24卷6期 (2021/12) Pp. 901-914

https://doi.org/10.6180/jase.202112_24(6).0011

摘要

We present an SIRD epidemic modelling for COVID-19 outbreak in the ASEAN member countries. The occurrence of a second wave in the region adds complexity to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model. In this case, a standard genetic algorithm cannot fully capture the dynamic transmission of the pandemic. We therefore introduce a genetic partial fitting algorithm (GPFA) of seven-day intervals. We show that our method outperforms the standard algorithm with a significant reduction in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value. We also extend our study to produce a real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number with a confidence interval to incorporate uncertainties in the model.

關鍵字

Genetic algorithm ； Epidemic model ； Partial fitting ； Second wave