- 期刊
- OpenAccess
Improving Trauma Triage Models for Motor Vehicle Crashes using Event Data Recorders and Functional Data Analysis
並列摘要
Quick identification of severe injury crashes can help Emergency Medical Services (EMS) better allocate their scarce resources to improve the survival of severely injured crash victims by providing them with a fast and timely response. Data broadcast from a vehicle's Event Data Recorder (EDR) provide an opportunity to capture crash information and send them to EMS near real-time. A key feature of EDR data is a longitudinal measure of crash deceleration. We used functional data analysis (FDA) to ascertain key features of the deceleration trajectories (absolute integral, absolute integral of its slope, and residual variance) to develop and verify a risk prediction model for serious (AIS 3+) injuries. We used data from the 2002-2012EDR reports and the National Highway and National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) datasets available on the National Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) website. We consider a variety of approaches to model deceleration data, including non- penalized and penalized splines and a variable selection method, ultimately obtaining a model with a weighted AUC of 0.93. A novel feature of our approach is the use of residual variance as a measure of predictive risk. Our model can be viewed as an important first step towards developing a real- time prediction model capable of predicting the risk of severe injury in any motor vehicle crash.