籃球比賽暫停對球隊得分之影響－以109學年度UBA大專籃球聯賽八強賽為例

籃球比賽中，如何適時的運用暫停授達機宜扭轉乾坤，不僅考驗籃球教練的智慧，也考驗選手的執行能力。目的：本研究以觀察前後5個球權發生時，籃球教練執行暫停策略的時機和成效的影響。方法：以109學年度UBA大專籃球聯賽八強賽（扣除電視暫停和裁判暫停，共計有185次暫停）為研究對象進行標記分析，以多元迴歸線性模型來估計團隊得分差與暫停前後、暫停當下的兩隊分差與暫停當下的節數之關係。結果：根據多元迴歸模型的結果，主動喊出暫停的球隊在暫停前後的五個球權內，暫停都有發揮顯著的正向影響，但拉開的差距隨球權數增加而遞減，顯示對手也會逐漸適應調整。而在影響暫停效果的因子中，暫停時的比分差和節數對比分變化趨勢並沒有顯著影響。結論：整體而言，國內UBA甲級八強球隊的教練，習慣將暫停保留在第二節和第四節時使用，以及在比分差距較大時使用。勝負隊之差異與使用暫停節數並沒有關係，但與執行暫停的分差級距有顯著上的差異。負隊執行較多的暫停，其原因為教練在戰局較為不利的情況下，傾向介入比賽以扭轉戰局。勝隊則無論在領先、落後、拉鋸的使用暫停比例並沒有太大不同。

關鍵字

暫停時機；大專籃球聯賽；標記分析；多元迴歸模型

並列摘要

The study examines the tendencies and effects of timeouts that UBA Division 1 coaches call, so we exclude TV timeouts and official timeouts of the sample. There are totally 185 timeouts remaining which fit research purposes. According to the results of multiple linear regression model, the team who calls timeout has positive scoring effects during the five possessions before and after the timeout. But the results also show that the margin of the positive effects is diminishing with the increasing span of possession, which means the opponent will also do some adjustments. The results also show that among the determinants of timeout effects, the scoring margins and the quarters of the timeout called has no significant effects toward increasing the leads or decreasing the trailing points. Overall, UBA Division 1 coaches prefer to utilize timeouts in the second and fourth quarter, which means that coaches would like to have timeouts to call in the clutch time. They also prefer to call timeouts when the scoring margin is more than 11 points. It's probably because the series often schedules 7 games in 8 days. Besides, when the teams' records are tie, UBA will rank the teams by the better team scoring margins. Therefore, UBA coaches will tend to do some adjustments to substitute players by calling timeouts. There is no significant difference of game results in the aspect of the timeout quarter, but the game results are significantly different considering the scoring margin of two teams when calling timeouts. Losing teams tend to call timeout when they are trailing, but when they are ahead or when game is tied, they prefer not to do anything which is very different comparing to the winning team. It suggests that coaches in UBA should call timeouts when they need to instead of considering the scoring margin or game quarter.