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選舉時程對國會選舉投票率的影響－總統制與半總統制民主國家的分析
Effects of Election Timing on Voter Turnout in Parliamentary Elections: A Cross-Country Study in Global Presidential and Semi-Presidential Democracies
摘要
過去的研究發現，許多民主國家在短時間接連舉辦多次選舉時，經常會導致選民疲乏（voter fatigue）的現象，亦即在重要選舉後緊接舉行另一項選舉，選民的投票意願會降低，導致後次選舉的投票率低於前次選舉的投票率。本文以「選民疲乏」作為推論的核心概念，探討在全世界總統與國會議員皆由人民直選的民主國家（亦即總統制與半總統制國家）中，總統與國會選舉的時程安排對國會選舉投票率所造成的影響。本研究推論，國會選舉與總統選舉時間越接近，選民投票疲乏的現象會越明顯，則國會選舉的投票率會越低；相反地，國會選舉與總統選舉時間相隔越久，選民投票疲乏的現象會越淡薄，則國會選舉投票率會越高。據此可得出以下假設：一、國會若與總統同時選舉，國會選舉投票率應該會最高；二、在總統選舉後不久舉辦的國會選舉（蜜月期選舉）中，投票率應該會最低；三、在總統選舉後許久舉辦的國會選舉（期中選舉）中，投票率應會介於前兩者之間；四、在總統選舉前不久舉辦的國會選舉（反蜜月期選舉）中，由於國會選舉會如同總統選舉的前哨戰，選民應會相當重視，其投票率應該僅會略低於總統與國會同時選舉。綜上，在四種選舉時程下，國會選舉投票率的排序應該會是「同時選舉＞反蜜月期選舉＞期中選舉＞蜜月期選舉」。本文檢視上述假設在現實經驗中是否可以得到確證，透過統計方法，以上假設得到一定程度的驗證。透過本研究，將可對全世界民主國家國會選舉投票率的制度成因提出新的理論觀點。
並列摘要
Previous studies have found that in many democratic countries, frequent and closely spaced elections often lead to voter fatigue, where the willingness of voters to participate in subsequent elections decreases, resulting in lower voter turnout compared to previous elections. This paper explores the concept of "voter fatigue" as a central idea and investigates the impact of the timing of presidential and parliamentary elections on voter turnout in democratic countries where both the president and members of the parliament are directly elected (i.e., presidential and semi-presidential systems). The study argues that the closer the timing between parliamentary and presidential elections, the more pronounced the phenomenon of voter fatigue, leading to lower voter turnout in parliamentary elections. Conversely, a longer interval between parliamentary and presidential elections reduces the effects of voter fatigue, resulting in higher voter turnout for parliamentary elections. Based on this, the following hypotheses are formulated: (1) Parliamentary elections held concurrently with presidential elections would have the highest voter turnout. (2) Parliamentary elections held shortly after presidential elections (honeymoon elections) would have the lowest voter turnout. (3) Parliamentary elections held a considerable time after presidential elections (midterm elections) would have voter turnout between the previous two cases. (4) Parliamentary elections held shortly before presidential elections (counterhoneymoon elections) would have slightly lower voter turnout than concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections due to the anticipation of the parliamentary elections as a prelude to the presidential elections. Based on these four election scenarios, the order of parliamentary election voter turnout is hypothesized to be "concurrent elections > pre-honeymoon period elections > midterm elections > honeymoon period elections." This paper examines whether the above hypotheses are supported by empirical evidence and provides statistical validation to a certain extent. The findings of this research contribute new theoretical perspectives to the understanding of institutional factors influencing voter turnout in parliamentary elections in democratic countries worldwide.