成功嚇阻的另一層思維－本益判斷的邏輯

Another Concept of Successful Deterrence-The Logic of Cost-Benefit Calculation

黃文龍

《國防雜誌》 25卷6期 (2010/12) Pp. 71-82

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2010.25(6).6

摘要

「有效嚇阻」於我國現今軍事戰略構想中，在嚇阻概念的發展下，對被嚇阻者所承擔的可能「損失」，應該可以是更為廣泛的本益計算。針對嚇阻本益的計算範圍，除了軍事行為外，尤其對於被嚇阻者不採取行動、誤判、預判等問題上，採用邏輯性的思考，將使嚇阻決策更為清晰，對於嚇阻成功的操作，產生另一層新的思維。

關鍵字

有效嚇阻 ； 嚇阻概念 ； 嚇阻決策

並列摘要

'Credible deterrence' is one of our military strategic concepts. Among the development of numerous deterrence concepts, the cost-benefit should be calculated extensively in order to find out the possible 'losses' which the adversary would get. Besides the military actions, using the logical thinking to calculate the cost-benefit will make the deterrence decision clearer and provide a new level of concept to successful deterrence operation, especially for those issues as inaction, misjudgment and advanced judgment of the adversary.

並列關鍵字

Credible deterrence ； deterrence concept ； deterrence decision