中國大陸綜合國力之發展與啟示

China Comprehensive National Power: Development and Implication

韓慧林(Hui-Lin Han) ； 王貴民(Kuei-Min Wang)

《國防雜誌》 27卷4期 (2012/07) Pp. 65-81

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2012.27(4).5

摘要

本研究以2010年及2020年為分析時點，運用腦力激盪法（brain storming），經訪談13位退役軍官，採1～10等第之評分方式進行兩岸綜合國力之分析，所考量之評估指標包括國土、人口、經濟、軍事、政治及心理；分析結果指出，經濟與軍事在兩個分析時點變化顯著。建議我國國防事務宜朝向：「結合政經實力，擴大和平效果」、「加強團隊合作觀念，建立全民憂患意識」、「突破科技建置，提升嚇阻效果」、「強化整合評估能量，維持軍力高效」、「建立績效稽核制度，精進國防管理」等方向努力。並宜創造「以小依大」、「以小附大」，捨棄「以小搏大」、不「以小激大」之政治智慧，提供中國大陸民主政體之學習藍本，達到「無戰－和平待變」境界，共創兩岸人民互惠雙贏情勢。

關鍵字

綜合國力 ； 和平崛起 ； 關鍵軍事能力指標

並列摘要

The objective of this paper is to analyze the changes of comprehensive national power for both sides of the Strait (Taiwan and China) within a decade. The analytical process is to through the brainstorming method with thirteen retired military officers by a way of grading from 1 to 10. The major indices for the national power measurement are land, population, economy, military, political and psychology. The result indicates there are two indices changed significantly, which are economy and military. The concluded suggestions to the MND and the government are as the following: integrating the strength of political economy for extending the peaceful effectiveness; enhancing teaming concept and build-up entire people's comprehensive awareness; improving integrated assessment capability for maintaining high quality of military power; establishing the performance audit system for advancing defense management and administration. Politically, it is required to promote the wisdom, in terms of ”size” concept, with adopting ”depending on giant”, ”attaching to giant” while abandoning ”against the giant” and ”agitating the giant”. Offering Taiwan's amazing democracy blue print for China, it may assist us in the ”no war to peace process” and achieving win-win situation on both sides of the Strait.

並列關鍵字

comprehensive national power ； peaceful rise ； key military performance index