美國「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」政策對臺海安全影響之分析

An Analysis upon the Impact of US Choice of "Strategic Ambiguity" or "Strategic Clarity" on Taiwan Strait Security

王紹經(Shaw-Jing Wang)

《國防雜誌》 38卷2期 (2023/06) Pp. 57-80

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.202306_38(2).0003

摘要

新冠肺炎疫情加劇美「中」競逐，美方強調對印太將投注更多資源對抗中共擴權，並與區域夥伴合作維持臺海穩定；針對共軍擾臺，美則可能續採「戰略模糊」抑或朝「戰略清晰」發展，並將牽動臺灣戰略利益走向。本文試圖分析美「中」在印太競逐升高對臺海安全影響，並以俄烏戰事為鑑，探究美「戰略模糊」與「戰略清晰」的戰略抉擇，思考臺美戰略合作的同時，逐步重啟與中共對話，尋求兩岸和平穩定氛圍，並以親美穩「中」做為對外發展格局主要考量，俾維避戰現狀。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎疫情 ； 戰略模糊 ； 戰略清晰 ； 臺海安全

並列摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic intensifies the competition between the US and China. The US emphasizes that it will invest more resources in the Indo-Pacific region to fight against the CCP's expansion of power, and the US will cooperate with regional partners to maintain stability over the Taiwan Strait. In response to the People's Liberation Army's aggressive behavior against Taiwan, the US could either continue to adopt either "strategic ambiguity," or shift toward "strategic clarity," which will affect the direction of Taiwan's strategic interests. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of the rising US-China competition in the Indo- Pacific region on the security of the Taiwan Strait and use the Russo-Ukrainian war as a lesson to explore the US's choice between "strategic ambiguity" and "strategic clarity." In addition, while thinking about the strategic cooperation between Taiwan and US, gradually restarting the dialogue with the CCP, the paper seeks a peaceful and stable atmosphere across the Strait and takes pro-US and stable China as the primary consideration for the external development pattern, so as to maintain the status quo of avoiding war.

並列關鍵字

COVID-19 ； Strategic Ambiguity ； Strategic Clarity ； Taiwan Strait Security