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熱錢效應對中國金融體系發展之分析
A Study on the Hot Money Impacts toward the Development of China Financial System
摘要
2003年起，中國外匯收支呈持續大額順差趨勢，平均每年新增外匯儲備超過2800億美元。在極端條件下，熱錢大規模撤離可能引發金融危機，從流動性過剩在短時間內轉變成流動性短缺，對經濟持續穩定發展影響較大；最近近一千億港幣熱錢流入中國內地投機的消息及近期農產品接二連三漲價問題,應可斷定中國經濟又開始進入一個熱錢進場高峰；隨著亞洲金融危機的結束和中國國內經濟的快速發展，人民幣呈現升值預期，加之美元利率持續走低，企業、個人和機構紛紛將境外資產調回，部分境外投機資金借各種正常和非正常渠道，採取分散、滲透的方式流人。國際熱錢之所以會流入中國主要是受人民幣升值預期以及美元的貶值的影響。受熱錢流入的影響，中國大陸不得不加大貨幣投放力度，因此，通貨膨脹的壓力得到了增加，央行的加息政策也受到了一定程度的制約。一般而言，投機性以及流動性是熱錢的特點，在進出期間，熱錢會引發相應的金融動盪，使嚴重的金融風險得到產生。對全球經濟發展史進行深入分析可知，諸多嚴重的金融危機都是由熱錢所引發的。所以，隨著大量熱錢的流入，中國大陸的金融安全也隨之面臨著巨大的挑戰，因此，相對在風險控管也需高度警戒，以防熱錢過多造成中國資產泡沫化危機之產生。本研究將對近年熱錢持續湧進中國，對中國整體金融市場發展是加分抑或減分？另一要探討問題是：加息是否將會導致熱錢大量流入中國房市和股市？中國國務院當前「打房政策」正積極進行，有抑制經濟過熱，預防資產泡沫化的危機之戰略性考量1。然而，現在很難判斷熱錢流入規模，中國官方一直沒有對流入中國的熱錢有明確的統計數據。另一方面，加息是否將會導致熱錢大量流入中國房市和股市？並對中國未來的貨幣政策與人民幣走勢產生之可能影響進行深入分析。筆者建議貨幣財金當局可依「托賓稅」進行適合台灣國情實施之適度修正，無論是中國或是台灣，熱錢持續流入已經是無法避免之問題，兩岸貨幣當局應該要有能力與魄力有效管制來自已開發國家的投機性資金流入，以避免資產泡沫化危機發生而引發金融危機。
並列摘要
Since 2003, the average annual increase of China's foreign exchange reserves over 280 billion U.S. dollars. In extreme conditions, large-scale withdrawal of hot money may lead to financial crisis, from the excess liquidity in the short time into a liquidity shortage, the economic impact of more sustainable and stable development. Though, unlike previous occasions, it is ferocious and difficult to recognize, even as the stock and real estate market, the feel of this speculative way the strategy and profitability have undergone a qualitative change in the latest periods. Accompanied by the end of the Asian financial crisis and the rapid development of China economy, RMB appreciation is expected to appreciate, simultaneously, U.S. interest rates continued to depreciate, enterprises, individuals and institutions have to repatriate foreign assets. In another part, by a variety of foreign speculative capital and non-normal normal channels scattered, and the potential benefits investing in China inspired the inflow of hot money flowing into China during theses five years. The reason why the international hot money flows into China is mainly due to expectations of RMB appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar. China government should be on high alert in risk management to prevent too much hot money came into and resulted in asset bubbling effect caused by continuous hot money generated. In this research, the author tries to analyze the impacts of hot money toward overall financial market development and possible monetary policy arranged and China Yuan future developing trends that may affect in China.