- 期刊
- OpenAccess
以事件研究分析新冠肺炎疫情對旅遊概念股股價與日收益率之影響
Using Event Study to Explore the Impact of the Covid-19 Epidemic on the Stock Prices and Daily Return of Tourism Concept Stocks
摘要
本研究旨在探討新冠肺炎疫情前、中、後期，旅遊概念股股價波動之情形並探討其對日收益率的影響，研究以大數據資料探勘技術擷取在台灣註冊上巿、上櫃、興櫃的旅行社，並於2024年1月之公司巿值排行前五大之旅行社在新冠肺炎疫情前、中、後期的股票每日收盤價格。在研究方法的部份，以事件研究法探討該五大旅行社股價受疫情影響的情形，並以統計方法進行股價波動的顯著性檢定。研究結果顯示，五大旅行社股價平均值在新冠肺炎疫情前、中、後期均具顯著差異，故進一步進行事後檢定多重比較分析。結果顯示，除了山富的股價在疫情前與疫情中沒有顯著差異以外，雄獅、鳳凰、燦星旅、五福等旅行社在新冠肺炎疫情前、中、後三個時期的股價均具顯著差異，而富山的股價在疫情後也顯著高於疫情前與疫情中。若以平均日收益率檢定雄獅、鳳凰、山富、燦星旅、五福等五家旅行社在新冠肺炎疫情前、中、後期之日收益率差異，則僅有五福在疫情後的平均日收益率顯著高於疫情前的平均日收益率，其他公司日收益率則不具顯著性差異。綜合上述，新冠肺炎疫情對旅遊概念股股價，在疫情高峰期確有影響，但隨著疫情逐漸趨緩旅遊概念股股價已顯著回升甚至高於疫情前的股價，顯示，股巿投資應考量中長期佈局，在疫情期間依每日收益率而短期操作股票交易並無實質效益。
並列摘要
This study aims to explore the stock price fluctuations of tourism concept stocks before, during and after the COVID-19 epidemic and explore its impact on daily returns. The study uses big data mining technology to extract the data of the top five travel agencies in January 2024 which registered listings, OTC listings, and emerging markets in Taiwan of travel agencies, and collect the daily closing prices of the stocks of the top five travel agencies, the period during before, during and after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study adopts the event study to explore the impact of the epidemic on the stock prices of the five major travel agencies, and statistical methods were used to test the significance of stock price fluctuations. The results showed that the average stock prices of the five major travel agencies were significantly different before, during and after the Covid-19 epidemic. Therefore, further post hoc multiple comparison analysis was conducted. The results showed that except for the stock price of Richmond Travel before the epidemic and during the epidemic, there was no significant difference. The stock prices of travel agencies such as LionTravel, PhxTour, TSG Star, and Life Travel have significant differences before, during, and after the Covid-19 epidemic. The stock price of Richmond Travel after the epidemic is also significantly higher than before and during the epidemic. If the average daily return rate is used to test the difference in the daily return rates of five travel agencies including LionTravel, PhxTour, Richmond Travel, TSG Star, and Life Travel before, during and after the Covid-19 epidemic, then only Life Travel's average daily return after the epidemic It is significantly higher than the average daily return rate before the epidemic, and there is no significant difference in others. Based on the above, the Covid-19 epidemic did have an impact on the stock prices of tourism concept stocks during the peak period of the epidemic. However, as the epidemic gradually eased, the stock prices of tourism concept stocks have rebounded significantly and were even higher than the stock prices before the epidemic, indicating that stock market investment should be considered. In terms of long-term layout, short-term stock trading based on daily yields during the epidemic has no real benefits.