Mathematical Model of Economic Forecasting and Analysis of the Market Competitive Mechanism

Valentin PAU ； Marcel STOICA ； Dan NICOLAE

《Communications of the IBIMA》 4卷 (2008/08) Pp. 183-187

摘要

The mathematical models of forecasting depend upon the managers conception regarding the actions development for long – term forecasting or for short – term forecasting. To this end, we distinguish two directions: an explorative one and a normative one. From the point of view of the investigating way, the methods and models of forecasting can be synthetic (aggregated) and morphologic, with a high disaggregating degree. If we take into consideration the nature of information that can be exact, incomplete or uncertain, it results that also the worked out models can be: deterministic, fuzzy, respectively, probabilistic ones (hybrid models can exist too). The deterministic forecasting is restricted to a single variant. The study presented in the paper is based on a deterministic hybrid model.