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奠基於遊戲樹理論之戰場風險管理
The Battlefield Risk Management Based on the Game Tree Theory
摘要
現今之作戰已進入資訊化型態。『運籌於帷幄，決勝於千里之外』。戰場狀況，瞬息萬變。資訊戰爭型態已成爲戰場決定勝負的關鍵。如何快速處理戰爭因素(Factors)，加以量化，快速計算，降低風險因素，取得較佳結果，將成爲指揮官另一決勝法寶。 戰場管理是一種典型的專案管理模式，它有特定之目標，明確的範圍、成本（資源）的限制，具備複雜性、非重複性、不確定性等特質，較一般專案更特殊。遊戲樹(Game Tree)之觀念，可以棋類爲例子：當我們要下棋時，總會考慮到對手可能對已方的傷害，而我們也因此必須選擇對已方最有利的下一步，也就是對已方傷害最少的下一步。此種觀念正如戰爭雙方作戰之特質，欲求取己方之最大勝算。 戰場管理正是一複雜之風險管理，如何反敗爲勝，正是風險管理及轉移運用的目的。現今戰爭戰況複雜，已非人腦所能處理，唯有資訊化管理才能思慮周密、決勝戰場。
並列摘要
The trend of modern war has been changed by the improvement of information technology. The situations in the warfare change in any second. The key point of winning a war is dependent on the instant information in a war. Therefore, how to immediately handle the situation and quantitate all the information in a war has become a critical factor for a commander. Battlefield management is one kind of model of typical project managements. It has the specific goal, scope. It is also complicated, non-replicated, uncertain and more special than other projects. The idea of game tree is wildly used in many applications. This concept is similar to battlefield management. That is, they are all seeking the best decision in very step. This idea is useful when we deal with the situation in a war. In this paper, we describe the relationship between these two kinds of project managements.