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Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting Population for Muslim of Rural Region in Bangladesh
並列摘要
In this research the population for Muslim of Rural region in Bangladesh is predicted by using the exponential growth rate method. For this link, the information of data for the Rural Muslim population for male and female of Bangladesh is obtained from 1991 and 2001 censuses. The predictions are computed in three phases. In the first phase, the predictions are computed using negative exponential growth model estimated by the Quasi-Newton method using STATISTICA for the years 1991 and 2001. Using the Cross Validation Predictive Power (CVPP) criterion and R^2, the shrinkage coefficient (8) is constructed. The shrinkage coefficient determines the adequacy of the first phase prediction. In the second phase, these predicted values are used to estimate the growth rate, for different age groups, by using the exponential growth rate method. In the third phase, that is, finally considering the observed population for Muslim of Rural region in Bangladesh for the Census year 2001 as the base population and using the estimated exponential growth rate, at different age groups, of the second phase estimation, the predictions of the population of Muslim of Rural region are obtained for the years 2002 through to 2021 employing exponential growth rate method successively 20 times.