安倍政權的三支箭戰略與風險

The Abe Government "Three Arrows" Strategy and Risk

蔡錫勲(Hsi-Hsun Tsai)

《淡江日本論叢》 28輯 (2013/12) Pp. 261-285

摘要

安倍首相的經濟政策被稱為安倍經濟學。三支箭希望將日本經濟從「停滯的二十年」轉向「再生的十年」。市場充滿著擺脫陷入通貨緊縮「停滯的二十年」的期待感。財界給安倍首相熱烈掌聲。安倍內閣的高支持率，讓執政黨在2013年參議院選舉大勝，解除眾參兩院的扭曲現象。對於日本的將來，安倍經濟學帶來光明的未來，還是安倍泡沫的崩潰？樂觀論和懷疑論交錯著。安倍經濟學證明，政府政策的有效性和國民共鳴相連。政府給予國民期待，創造心理效果時，所謂庶民感覺是不可缺少。

關鍵字

三支箭 ； 再生的十年 ； 日本銀行 ； 好循環 ； 安倍泡沫

並列摘要

Prime Minister Abe's economic policy is called the Abenomics. The three arrows tend to convert Japanese economy into ”10 years of recovery” greatly from ”20 years of stagnation.” The market has swollen to the expectations that Japan is freed from the deflation. The business world sends a hot yell to Prime Minister Abe. Since the approval rating for the Abe Cabinet has got stuck at high levels, it won a great victory by the Upper House election in 2013, and canceled the twist phenomenon of both Houses. In the future, is it the rosy future which an Abenomics achieves or will it be the Abe bubble burst? Optimism and skepticism are each other interwoven with. As for the validity of a government policy, this paper has found that what the Abenomics proved is concerned with the existence of resonance with people. In order to encourage people's expectations and create a psychological effect, the people feeling is indispensable.

並列關鍵字

three arrows ； 10 years of recovery ； Bank of Japan ； virtuous circle ； Abe bubble