- 期刊
- OpenAccess
投手首球為好球與打擊者上壘機率的相關性
The Correlation between First Pitch Strike and On-base Percentage
摘要
棒球比賽是以得分較多者為贏家，若打者上壘就有機會可以回到本壘得分。投手在比賽時最主要的工作之一則為解決打擊者，只要打擊者無法上壘投手就不會失分，根據棒球規則，擊球員獲得主審裁判宣布「第三好球」宣告時，裁定出局，因此拿下每位打擊者首球為好球，即取得1/3的優勢。以此觀點拿下打擊者首球為好球，就在好壞球數上領先打擊者，投手即佔有優勢。資料收集是以2014年中華職棒二軍比賽中，統一獅隊11名投手面對其他三隊打擊者為例，採現場記錄法及中華職棒聯盟提供的紀錄統計比賽結果。利用假設檢定來考驗第一球壞球的上壘機率是否顯著地比第一球好球的上壘機率大。研究結果發現若投手面對每位打者第一球為好球能降低打擊者上壘的機率，並從先發與中繼投手的數據中發現無論是投較長局數或是短局數的投手，只要首球為好球皆能降低打擊者上壘的機率。本篇將告訴投手們一個有利於自己的方法：在投打對決的過程中首球好球，使好球數一開始就領先打擊者，讓投手們在比賽及練習時有一個清楚的目標。
並列摘要
The team that scores more runs wins the baseball game. It indicates that a hitter possibly score once he gets on base. One of the biggest things for a pitcher in a ball game is to retire the hitters. No hitter reaches the base, no run is scored. According to the baseball rules, a hitter is out when a third strike is legally caught by the catcher. Therefore, the pitcher has a upper hand after the first strike. The researcher collected the official statistics of 11 pitchers on the Uni-Lions in 2014 CPBL Minor League games and took hypothesis testing to seek for potential significant difference between first pitch strike and first pitch ball in terms of on-base percentage. The results show that both starting pitchers and relief pitchers can lower down the on-base percentage by throwing first pitch strike, and that offers all pitchers a beneficial approach to practice and game, that is to say, to work ahead and throw first pitch strike.