台灣葡萄之生產成本及價格分析

Production Cost and Price Analyses for the Grapes in Taiwan

林月金(Y. J. Lin)

《臺中區農業改良場特刊》 2號 (1985/10) Pp. 1-59

摘要

本研究之主要目的為（1）探討台灣葡萄之價格變動。（2）分析台灣葡萄之生產成本及收益，並估算累積現值，進而求益本比。（3）檢討現行之釀酒用葡窯收購價格訂定標準，並提出淺見。研究方法採益本分析法為主，且以8.5%及10%（以括弧內數字表示）兩種貼現率加以估算；價格變動採定基指數與最小平方法、簡單月別平均法、Michaely指數與Von-Neumann比率，分別就長期趨勢、季節變動以及穩定性進行分析。研究結果如下：（一）目前台灣鮮食葡萄之栽培品種為巨峰及義大利，每公頃年平均產量分別為31,298公斤及26,651公斤；粗收益為719,519元及1,129,828元；生產成本為623,413元（632,608元）及633,792元（664,653元）；淨收益為96,106元（86,911元）及496,036元（485,175元）。就巨峰種而言，地區別之生產成本以台中縣最高，彰化縣最低，淨收益以南投縣最高，台中縣最低；田種別之生產成本以旱田最高，河川地最低，淨收益則以河川地最高，旱田最低；依規模別觀之，除1.50公頃以上組因樣本戶僅1戶，或有偏差外，大抵言之，單位面積產量並無明顯之差異，生產成本隨規模愈大而愈低，粗收益與淨收益則均呈規模愈大而愈高之趨勢。倘依樹齡別觀之，巨峰種第一年只投入無收穫，第2~第3年生之年平均產量尚低，仍屬虧損，第4年生以上之年公頃產量已穩定，其後各樹齡別之生產成本約等，收益則無規則可循；義大利種第1年亦只投入無收穫，第2~第3年生以上則可獲淨益，但樹齡別間之生產成本及收益亦均無規則可循，唯可看出，樹齡在16年生以上者之生產成本最高，收益最低。（二）一般而言，目前巨峰葡萄之生產尚屬有利，但根據本研究結果，民國61~72年間，巨峰葡萄之當年價格雖仍呈上漲趨勢，而實質價格卻已略呈下跌之勢。尤其近年來，無論當年或實質價格均呈明顯下跌現象。據此，進一步固算其益本比約僅0.86。然就其產地價格之季節指數觀之，月別間差異頗大，其中以10月最高，7月最低，12月次低；義大利葡萄之益本比約1.34，較巨峰種有利。顯見，今後鮮食葡萄之發展，不宜再擴大巨峰種之栽培，而果農倘能成功的將目前之部分夏果及冬果調節至秋季供果，則巨峰葡萄之生產仍有利可圖。至於義大利葡萄實可作為部分水田轉作作物，但須有計劃的擴大栽培。此外，應發展類似義大利種之歐洲品系或不同果色之品種，以擴大消費市場。（三）民國47~72年間，台灣釀酒用葡萄之當年收購價格雖呈上漲之勢，但實質價格卻呈下跌之勢；不論當年價格或實質價格均屬本質不穩定。倘以民國60年為界，分成民國47~60年及61~72年兩個階段，則不論當年價格或實質價格，前階段均呈下跌趨勢，後階段均呈上漲趨勢；後階段之當年價格尤較前階段不穩定，實質價格則反是。倘將民國61~72年釀酒用葡萄之收購價格與鮮食葡萄比較，則不論當年價格或實質價格均以前者較穩定，且有較明顯的長期趨勢現象。（四）目前台灣釀酒用葡萄之栽培品種為金香、黑后及奈加拉，每公頃年平均產量分別為29,809公斤、19,673公斤及16,682公斤；粗收益為587,327元、576,688元及316,302元；生產成本為410,522元（414,720元）、427,525元（432,249元）及292,123元（296,297元）；淨收益為176,805元（172,607元）、149,163元（144,439元）及24,179元（20,005元）。就栽培面積佔90%以上的金香種而言，生產成本及淨益均以彰化縣水田為最高，台中縣旱田為最低；依規模別觀之，生產成本大體呈規模愈大成本愈低之趨勢，淨收益隨規模愈大而愈高；依樹齡別觀之，第1年只投入無收穫，第2年雖為第一次採收，但一般產量已正常，唯各樹齡別間之生產成本及收益並無明顯之趨勢。至於黑后種而言，旱田之生產成本與水田約等，淨益則較水田少74%左右。（五）目前生產釀酒用葡萄之年平均淨益雖極優厚，但民國75年契作合約期滿後，若採生產成本加20%訂價，則奈加拉種已無利可圖，且在水、旱田統一給價標準下，金香種之旱田栽培亦將面臨不敷成本之局面。（六）近數年來，公賣局為激勵果農生產高品質葡萄，不斷增列收購等級，並依等級加成給價，但釀酒用葡萄之品質並未見大幅度提高，此乃因等級間之價差不大，不足以彌補為求高品質所減少之產量損失。因此，今後欲提高釀酒用葡萄之品質，除嚴格執行限量收購外，公賣局訂價時，應以五級品作基礎，並擴大各等級間之價差，且除考慮生產成本外，亦應以目前品質下農民所獲得之總收入作比較基礎。產量則以水、旱田每公頃契約收購量之加權平均數為目標。

並列摘要

The main objectives of this study were: (1) to analyze the price variation of grapes in Taiwan. (2) to analyze the production cost and revenue of grapes in Taiwan. (3) to look over the guidelines of the present wine grape purchasing price and make some suggestions. The main method of economic analysis was benefit-cost analysis, and both 8.5% and 10% (as shown within parentheses) discount rate were used for estimation. The price variations were analyzed by Fixed base index, Least squares method, Simple month average method, Michaely index and Von-Neumann ratio. Results of the study were as following: (1)The main table grape varieties in Taiwan were Kyoho and Italia IP65. In this survey, the two varieties were respectively 31,298kg and 26,651kg per hectare in average yields; NT$719,519 and 1,129,828 per hectare in gross revenue; NT$623,413 (632,608) and 633,792 (644,653) per hectare in production cost; and NT$96,106 (86,911) and 496,036 (485,175) per hectare in net revenue. For Kyoho grape, as compared by locations, Taichung Prefecture was the highest and Changhwa Prefecture was the lowest in production cost, and Nantou Prefecture was the highest and Taichung Prefecture was the lowest in net revenue. As compared by landforms, upland field was the highest and river bed was the lowest in production cost, however, river bed had the highest and upland had the lowest net revenue. As the data were analyzed by farm size, it was found that except the only one larger than 1.50 ha which might have some deviation in data, generally, there was no obvious variation in unit yield, and the production cost decreased with the increasing of farm size, but the gross revenue increased with the increasing of farm size. If the ages of fruit tree was considered, for Kyoho grape, there was only input without output in the first year. In the 2nd and 3rd the annual average yield was still low so that no net profit was gained. After the 4th year, the annual yield was stable. From this year on, the production cost was almost equal and revenue was irregular for the trees of different ages. For Italia IP65, in the first year, there was also only input without output. From the 2nd and 3rd year on, pure profit could be obtained although production cost and revenue were irregular for the trees of different ages. However, as the ages of trees got over 16 years, the production cost became the highest and the revenue became the lowes. (2)Generally speaking, Kyoho grape is still profitable. However, according to this study, from 1972 to 1983, although the annual average price rose, the real price declined. Especially in recent years, both current price and real price declined. Therefore, the benefit-cost ratio was only about 0.86. If seasonal index for farm price was analyzed, the price was the highest in October, and the lowest in July, followed by December as the second lowest. Italia IP65, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.34 was more profitable than Kyoho grape. Therefore, for table grapes, Kyoho grape shouldn't be increased in acreage, however if the farmers were able to partially adjust the harvesting season from summer and winter to fall, it would be profitable. As for Italia IP65, it might be used as a substitute crop for rice, however, it should have a well arranged cultivation plan. In addition, some other Europeon varieties similar to Italia IP65 or some varieties with different color should be developed so that the market might be enlarged. (3)From 1958 to 1983, although the purchasing price of wine grapes in Taiwan showed a raising tendency, the real price declined. Both current price and real price were all of substantial instability. If this period was further separated into two parts, one from 1958 to 1971 and the other from. 1972 to 1983, both current price and real price showed a declining tendency in the earlier period and a raising tendency in the later period. The current price was more unstable in the later period than in the earlier period. For real price, the instability was reversed. If the purchasing price for wine grape was compared to that of table grape from 1972 to 1983, it was observed that for both current price and real price, the former was more stable and persisting a long tendency. (4)The present wine grape varieties in Taiwan were Golden Muscat, Black Queen and Niagara. The three varieties were respectively 29,809、19,673 and 16,682 kg per hectare in average yields; NT$587,327、576,688 and 316,302 in gross revenue; NT$410,522 (414,720)、427,525 (432,249) and 292,123 (296,297) in production cost; and NT$176,805 (172,607)、149,163 (144,439) and 24,179 (20,005) in net revenue. The Golden Muscat grape which occupied 90% of the planted area, showed the highest production cost and net revenue in the paddy field in Changhwa Prefecture, and the upland field in Taichung Prefecture was the lowest in both. Generally the production cost decreased and the net revenue increased as the farm size increased. If the ages of fruit trees was considered, there was only input without output in the 1st year. In the 2nd year, although it was the first year of harvesting, the annual average yield per hectare had become normal. From this year on, there was no obvious tendency for both production cost and revenue among the trees of different ages. For Black Queen grape, the production cost in upland field and paddy field were about the same, however, the net profit from upland field was 74% lower than that from paddy field. (5)The present annual net revenue from wine grapes was excellent, however, upon the termination of the contract in 1986, the Niagara grape will become profitless if the purchasing price is set at the 120% of production cost. In addition, if the guidelines of purchasing price for paddy field and upland field are the same, the Golden Muscat planted in upland field will become no profit too. (6)Recently, for encouraging the farmers to produce grapes of higher quality, the Taiwan Monopoly Bureau had continued adding purchasing grades and expanding the price difference between the grades. However, the quality of wine grapes were no better than before due to the inadequate price difference between the purchasing grades to compensate the quantity loss for raising the fruit quality. Therefore, in order to improve the quality of wine grapes, it is very important to control the purchasing of grapes under a certain limited quantity. In addition, the setting of purchasing price should be based on the 5th grade and the price difference between grades should be enlarged. Of course, it is also important that production cost and the farmer's total revenue under the present quality must be well compared and considered. Aimed yield should be based on the weighted mean of contracted purchasing quantity for both paddy field and upland field.