基于购买力平价的人民币汇率协整研究

Cointegration Research of RMB Exchange Rate Based On PPP

贾凯威(Kai-Wei Jia)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 3卷5期 (2008/10) Pp. 55-67

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.200810_3(5).0005

摘要

本文结合经济背景及经济政策，采用以购买力平价模型为代表的传统汇率决定模型对我国人民币汇率水平进行实证分析与研究。研究表明购买力平价理论及模型能够对我国人民币汇率的发展趋势作出有效的解释。鉴于此，提出了相关的政策建议。

關鍵字

汇率 ； 协整 ； 购买力平价

並列摘要

Considering the economic backgrounds and policies, with the help of PPP model, this paper established a model to estimate the level of exchange rate of RMB. The results shows that the RMB exchange rate can be effectively explained. Finally, we put up with some useful suggestions with respect to the result.

並列關鍵字

Exchange Rate ； Cointegration ； Purchasing Power Parity

參考文獻

MacDonald, Ronald,Ricci, Luca.PPP and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector.IMF Working Paper.WP/01/38,1-35.

MacDonald, Ronald,Ricci, Luca.Purchasing Power Parity and New Trad Theory.IMF Working Paper.WP/02/32,1-35.

Bayoumi, Tamim,Macdonald, Ronald(1999).Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions.IMF Staff Papers.46(1)

UNCTAD=联合国贸易和发展委员会(2002).Developing Countries in World Trade.

陈學彬(1999)。近期人民币实际汇率变动态势分析。经济研究。1999(1)