Uncontained Rotor Safety Analysis and Optimization Based on FTA-BN Model with LOPA

Xiangjun Dang ； Haoming Liu ； Wu Deng ； Yongxuan Shao ； Zhe Yang

《Journal of Aeronautics, Astronautics and Aviation》 56卷3期 Vol.56 No.3 (2024/07) Pp. 703-713

https://doi.org/10.6125/JoAAA.202407_56(3).08

摘要

Uncontained rotor failure of aircraft engine is a typical civil aviation risk, which has an important impact on flight safety. This paper conducts uncontained safety analysis of engines in operation and provides safety optimization recommendations throughout entire lifecycle, from design, production, operation, and maintenance. Firstly, uncontained rotor failure is modeled by Bayesian approach based on fault tree. Secondly, considering the uncertainties, polymorphism, and non-independence in engineering practice, the Bayesian network model is improved and optimized to align with real-world operational scenarios. Subsequently, leveraging the strong inferential analysis capabilities of the Bayesian network, the major risk events leading to uncontained failure are identified as fan disk rupture, fan blade fracture, insufficient containment of the low-pressure compressor casing and high-pressure turbine rotor separation. Finally, by protection layer analysis, a safety optimization of the major risk events is conducted, and recommendations are provided for engine structural design, manufacturing processes, material selection, operational procedures, and inspection and maintenance practices.

關鍵字

Aircraft engine ； Uncontained rotor failure ； Safety analysis ； Bayesian network ； Layer of protection analysis

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