- 會議論文
氣候變遷與人類歷史
Climate change and human history
摘要
氣候影響人類生活無所不在，舉凡衣食住行育樂等，無不受氣候條件所制約。嚴重的早澇等及荒歉，也是社會動盪的主因之一，甚者導致歷史朝代的更替或邦國的消亡。竺可楨及藍姆兩位教授，對全球數千年來氣候變遷的探討與熱忱，啟動了歷史氣候研究的新領域。經由東西方學者共同努力，除了利用歷史文獻外，還取得地球科學方面的實證資料，如樹輪、石筍、花粉、冰芯中同位素氧、土壤中鈦元素、湖泊沉積物中碳氮比、以及高山雪線與冰川移動等方面的數據分析，藉此來推估過去的氣候變化狀況，研究成果輝煌。他們大多認為西元的。450-550年為寒冷期、950-1100年為中古氣溫最適期、1500-1850為小冰期、1900年之後為全球暖化期。氣候變遷與人類歷史間的因果關係，可以有合理的解說。譬如第五世紀末的寒冷氣候，是造成北魏孝文帝遷都的主因之一，第十世紀的中古氣溫最適期，改變北美印第安人獵食習慣，也暢旺了北歐維京人的航海事業，第十六至十八世紀歐洲小冰期的嚴寒，導致倫敦泰晤士河結冰及冰上嘉年華的奇觀，最近半世紀以來，因排放溫效氣體引發的全球暖化及海平面上升。後者嚴重影響生態環境及人們生活，已引起國際社會的重視。
並列摘要
Climate affects the human necessities such as clothing, dwelling, food, transport, recreation and etc. Famine of heavy drought and flood may cause overturning of a dynasty or diminishing of a country. Study of historical climatology was pioneered by Prof. Zhu in China and Prof. Lamb in England. They devoted themselves to compiling and to interpreting the causes and effects of climate change in the process of human history with great achievement. The analytical technique in earth-science such as studies on snow-line, glacier, lake-sediment, tree-ring, stalagmite, pollen, ice-core, soil titanium concentration, and etc. also contribute greatly to the field of climate change. Historical climatologists general agreed that the time during 450-550A.D. is a cold period, during 950-1100A.D. is the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), during 1500-1850A.D. is the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the 1900A.D. and afterward is a global warming period. Historical incidence in relation with its climatic environment may often be interlinked closely. For examples, the cold climate in the late 5^(th) century brought about capital relocation of Bei-Wei dynasty in China, the climate in the Medieval Warm Period altered the Indian diet in North America and flourished the Viking’s maritime activities as well. The cold climate in the Little Ice Age led to the freeze of Times River where ice fair became possible in winter. Global warming and sea-level rise become the popular subjects of climate change at present and consequently carbon dioxide emission is requested to be controlled under a safe level. Nevertheless, both developed and developing countries are reluctant to comply with the control standard set forth in Kyoto Protocol and in Copenhagen Conference. It is hoped that international cooperation must be settled for the sake of human society.