摘要
藍綠對決、北藍南綠等觀念，多年來一直被視為台灣政治結構的常態。然而根據本文的分析，台灣的藍綠分野，從來就是變動不居的，並非固定的狀態。同時，中間選民的重要性不斷增強，也使得台灣的選民結構產生了極為明顯的鐘擺效應。台灣自施行民主選舉至今，發生了多次的鐘擺效應。總計台灣二十多年來的選舉，藍綠二大政黨共發生了8次翻盤及鐘擺效應紀錄。分別是：第1次，1997年的第13屆縣（市）長選舉，民進黨得票率超越國民黨；第2次，1998年的第4屆立法委員選舉，國民黨以46.4%的得票率，大勝民進黨的29.6%得票率；第3次，2000的第10任總統（副總統）選舉，陳水扁得票率大勝國民黨的連戰；第4次，2005年的第15屆縣（市）長選舉，國民黨獲勝，國民黨並於2008年的第12任總統（副總統）選舉，由馬英九當選總統；第5次，2014的第17屆縣（市）長選舉，由民進黨獲勝，並於2016的第14任總統（副總統）選舉中，由民進黨提名的蔡英文當選總統；第6次，2018年的第18屆縣（市）長選舉，以韓國瑜為首的國民黨擊敗民進黨；第7次，2020的第15任總統（副總統）選舉以及第10屆立法委員選舉，民進黨獲勝，並由蔡英文連任總統。第8次，2022年的中華民國直轄市長選舉及縣市長選舉，選舉結果再度翻轉，國民黨共當選15席，民進黨則只當選5席。此一選舉上的鐘擺效應，乃是由台灣中間選民力量所造成。亦即，台灣的中間選民並不固著於意識形態與政黨認同，影響中間選民投票行為的最主要因素乃是理性的計算與抉擇。這主要來自於三個面向的思考：第一，一個政黨的能力是否受到民眾的認可，亦即能否創造經濟繁榮以及維護社會安定；第二，一個政黨是否被認為是清廉的，而非貪腐的；第三，一個政黨是否能夠捍衛國家主權並保障國家安全。
並列摘要
Party identification is generally considered to be the main determinant of election success in Taiwan. The stable supporters of Taiwan's major political parties have changed slowly over the years. However, due to changes in the voting preferences of the independent voters, political party rotations often occur in Taiwan. Since the implementation of democratic elections in Taiwan, there have been many election swings. A total of more than 20 years of elections in Taiwan, the two major political parties such as the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, have had a total of 8 election reversals and swings. The first swing was in the 1997 county mayor election, in which the Democratic Progressive Party surpassed the KMT in terms of votes. The second time, in the Legislative Council election in 1998, the Kuomintang won 46.4% of the votes, beating the Democratic Progressive Party's 29.6% of the votes. The third time was the 2000 presidential election, in which Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party won a big victory over Lien Chan of the Kuomintang. The fourth time was the 2005 county mayor election, in which the Kuomintang won over the DPP. The fifth time was the 2014 county and city mayoral election, and the winning party was the Democratic Progressive Party. The sixth time was the 2018 election for county and city chiefs, in which the KMT headed by Han Guoyu defeated the DPP. The seventh time is the 2020 presidential election and legislative election, in which the DPP won. The eighth swing is the election of county and city chiefs in 2022. In this election, the KMT won a total of 15 county mayors, while the DPP only won 5 county mayors. The swings in Taiwan's previous elections were caused by the power of Taiwan's independent voters. Independent voters in Taiwan are less fixated on ideology and party identification. The most important factor in their voting behavior is rational calculation and choice. Independent voters in Taiwan are a key force in the rotation of political parties in Taiwan.