十八世紀英國南海公司的股價泡沫和投資分析

The stock price bubble of the South Sea Company (1720)

鄧克騰(TANG Hak Tung)

《新亞學報》 39卷 (2022/08) Pp. 173-236

https://doi.org/10.6743/NAJ.202208_39.0005

摘要

所謂泡沫，就是指資產價格出現升幅遠高於其基本因素所能解釋的市場異象。綜觀史界有關「南海泡沫」論述，對該公司股票的估值卻少見有正面的討論。而如對企業價值毫無掌握，量度基準欠奉，即很難就當時南海股價是否真的已脫離基本因素、泡沫曾否出現等重大問題，進行有意義的討論，故此對南海的投資價值，實有需要作較深入的分析與評估。如純粹從基本因素角度考量，南海的內在價值估計約為每股100鎊。然而市場對公司推行「南海計劃」，以溢價發行股本置換國債，然後出售剩餘股份套利所得的過度樂觀預期，誘發了投資者對南海股票的瘋狂追捧。公司在1720年4月中啟動「南海計劃」，推出首次售股，其為估算實值三倍之300 鎊定價，已遠非基本因素所能支持，可認定股價泡沫已經出現。股價在接下來的幾個月繼續飆升，一度接近千鎊高位；泡沫於同年9月爆破，最後在近100鎊的水平找到支持，價格回歸基本面。

關鍵字

南海泡沫 ； 南海公司 ； 股價泡沫 ； 投資分析

並列摘要

When the price of an asset surges far beyond what is justified by the market fundamentals, this is known as ＂bubble＂. Studies of the South Sea Bubble (1720) abound, but very few deal with technical stock price analysis. Without solid calculation of the value of the company, and without clear definition of measurement, it is difficult to arrive at convincing answers to such questions like (1) if the stock price of the South Sea Company has surged beyond fundamentals, (2) if a ＂bubble＂ had indeed occurred. This paper estimates that the intrinsic value of the South Sea Company stock was ₤100 per share. Since the launching of the South Sea Scheme in April 1720, the share price was set at ₤300, far beyond what was justified by the market fundamentals. Therefore, a ＂bubble＂ had indeed occurred. The South Sea Company stock continued surging, at times approaching ₤1,000. In September 1720, the ＂bubble＂ finally burst, and the share price dropped back to around ₤100, finding its support from the market fundamentals.

並列關鍵字

South Sea Bubble ； South Sea Company ； stock price bubble ； investment analysis

參考文獻

A Farther Examination and Explanation of the South-Sea Company's Scheme, Shewing, That it is not the Interest of the South-Sea Company to offer the Annuitants such Terms as may induce them to come in; And that the Proposal of the Bank is more likely to be accepted by the Annuitants, and the Publick not disappointed. London: J. Roberts, 1720.

An Examination and Explanation of the South-Sea Company's Scheme For taking in the Publick Debts, etc. London: J. Roberts, 1720.

Anderson, Adam. Origin of Commerce. Vol. II. London: Printed for A. Millar, J. and R. Tonson, 1764.

Blunt, Sir John. A True State of the South-Sea-Scheme, As It Was First Form'd, &c. With the Several Alterations Made In It Before the Act of Parliament Pass'd. London: J. Peele, 1732.

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