- 期刊
從情報角度建立分析性模式評估中共052D型艦防空火力
Evaluating AAW firepower of PLAN 052D Destroyer by an analytical model from perspective of Intelligence Agency
摘要
一、中共仿自美海軍神盾艦的新艦－052D型驅逐艦(DDG)，又稱「中華神盾」，已陸續成軍。國內外輿論與分析家對其評價雖有高低，但對中共之軍工自製武器系統能力卻皆同聲佩服、稱羨有加；然而對它的區域防空作戰效益究竟如何，至今仍是眾說紛紜、莫衷一是。二、非經量化分析，052D的飽和火力能量終將還是個謎，尤其所獲有限資料的可信度與有效性尚無從證實之際。本研究從情報角度出發，以軍事作業研究為基礎，發展簡單分析方法-火力時間窗口之數學模式，針對052D戰鬥系統防禦日本下一代超音速攻船飛彈XASM (X Anti-Ship Missile)之想定進行案例分析。三、結果顯示，052D所面臨的最壞狀況是XASM以3馬赫掠海攻擊彈道方案。因地球曲度限制因素，052D無法延伸雷達對掠海目標之偵測距離，戰鬥系統反應時間受到壓縮，令其整合之飽和接戰量為7.3枚，換算需求之F-2戰機只要大於4架就有攻擊成功的機會。四、本研究所運用數據皆來自公開文獻與資料，其間之誤差難以避免，但結果所顯示之趨勢與研判仍可提供各方對052D的解讀。
並列摘要
1. The ＂Chinese Aegis＂, 052D Destroyers have been commissioned and operational. The swarmed public comments have never been stopped, in which no matter compliments or critics, there is one common admiration for Chinese is its amazing ability in copying and producing these new generation weapon systems and platforms. 2. However, without a quantitative process, the capability of 052D in area air defense warfare (AAW) would be still a guess from all aspects, in particular on the premise that the limited number and unconfirmed data. Objective of this study is, from Intelligence Agency perspective, to develop an ad hoc analytical model, based on ＂time window of firepower＂ concept, for analzing 052D area AAW capability. The basis of scenario and proposed feasible alternatives is using Japanese next generation anti ship missile (XASM) to attack 052D. 3. The results show that the worst case for 052D is to against the high speed (3 mach) skimmer. The main reason is that the detection range of on-board phased array radar is limited by the curve of earth that shrinks the enagagement time window. The consequence is that only 7.3 XASMs the 052D can enagage, i.e. 052D's saturate enagagement volume is 7.3 XASMs. In terms of attacking force, the Japanese Navy can carry out its successful attack with no less than four of F-2 fighters. 4. All the data used in this study are from open sources that may certainly cause the deviation of analytical result but the trends and evaluaitons are still capable of interpreting the mith of 052D for Intelligence Agency.