民眾對「九二共識」的認知及對2018年縣市長選舉的影響

民進黨、國民黨、共產黨對於「九二共識」有不同的說法，台灣民眾對於「九二共識」的認知也有相當大的歧異。但是不可否認，「九二共識」已成為重要的選舉議題。2016年總統大選，蔡英文以「維持現狀」贏得勝選，突破國、共兩黨對於「九二共識」的框架，讓民進黨政府認為已擺脫「九二共識」的糾纏，未來將以「維持現狀」為基礎，以中華民國現行的憲法跟《兩岸人民關係條例》來處理兩岸事務。不過對於不承認「九二共識」的蔡政府，中國也祭出縮減觀光客、中止官方接觸等手段來抵制兩岸的交流發展。在外交及軍事上，也採取拉攏我邦交國及以軍機、軍艦繞台等方式，給予台灣極大壓力。加上民進黨政府的經濟政策無法在短時間內看出成績，年金改革、處理國民黨黨產等改革議題又被批評為手段粗糙，終於在2018年的縣市長選舉中，韓國瑜以一句「又老又窮」批評高雄，承諾要讓高雄「貨進來，人出去，市民發大財」，引爆人民對於民進黨的不滿。這種拚經濟的「韓氏語言」，讓不承認九二共識，遭中國抵制而受影響的觀光、旅遊、運輸、農業等行業有了新的期待。這股「韓流」最終也壓垮了民進黨，造成縣市長選舉大敗，執政縣市從13個降到6個，直轄市僅剩桃園市及台南市，行政院長賴清德也因此負責下台。韓國瑜在選舉過程中表明支持「九二共識」，但是也用「經濟一百分，政治零分」來強調拚經濟的重要性，所以韓版的「九二共識」並不是像馬英九或其他國民黨政治菁英以「政治」的方式呈現，而是改以「拚經濟」的話術包裝。韓國瑜後來訪問香港中聯辦、中共國台辦，也都是強調「拚經濟」，簽了多少訂單，而避談兩岸的政治定位。雖然台灣民眾對於「九二共識」有相當不同的認知，但是對於「拚經濟」卻有相同的期待。所以當「九二共識」改用拚經濟的話術來包裝，加上中國因素以資本或其他經濟相關手段影響台灣民眾對於「九二共識」的認知，認為「拚經濟」比「拚政治」重要，就相當程度的影響了2018年的縣市長選舉。2020年總統大選，更離不開「九二共識」與「中國因素」，拚經濟或顧主權，仍將是總統大選非常重要的選戰主軸，也會影響民眾投票的選擇。

關鍵字

九二共識；一中各表；維持現狀；一個中國；中國因素

並列摘要

The DPP, KMT, and the Communist Party all have their own way of interpreting ＂1992 Consensus＂. There also exists a great disparity on ＂1992 Consensus＂ among the public in Taiwan. Undeniably, the ＂1992 Consensus＂ has become an important election issue. In 2016, Tsai Ing Wen won the presidential election by running on the ＂Status Quo＂ platform, making a breakthrough on the ＂1992 Consensus＂ framework. The DPP government thought that it has rid the entanglement of ＂1992 Consensus＂ in that it can take the principle of the ＂Status Quo＂ as the basis, and handle the cross-strait affairs with the constitution of the Republic of China and the Act Governing the Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. However, China executed means such as reducing tourists and stopping official contact to counter the denial of ＂1992 Consensus＂ by the Tsai government. In the areas of diplomatic and military affairs, China has tried to befriend the countries that have diplomatic ties with our country and deployed military aircrafts and vessels to circle Taiwan to put pressure on the island. In addition, the results of the economic policies of the DPP government are not obvious within a short time. The reform issues such as the national pension reform and the processing of the party asset of the KMT have been criticized to be coarse at best. Finally in the county and city heads elections in 2018, Han, Kuo-Yu ignited people's dissatisfaction on the DPP with slogans like ＂Old and Poor＂, criticizing Kaohsiung ＂Merchandise In, People Out, Citizens Make Big Money＂. This kind of ＂Han-style Language＂ instilled new expectations on industries of tourism, travelling, transportation, and agriculture which have been boycotted by China for denial of 1992 Consensus. This ＂Han Storm＂ finally crushed the DPP, resulting in a great setback of governments from 13 counties/cities to 6. Special municipalities under DDP control are left with only Taoyuan City and Tainan City. The premier, Lai Ching De, stepped down to assume the responsibility. Han, Kuo-Yu expressed his support for ＂1992 Consensus＂ during the election, but also used the slogan ＂Economy 100, Politics 0＂ to stress the importance of reviving the economy. Han's version of ＂1992 Consensus＂ is unlike that of Ma, Ying-Jiou or other KMT elites who presented the concept ＂politically＂, but rather was repackaged in using the vernacular, ＂Economic Revival＂. Han, Kuo-Yu later visited Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of PRC where he emphasized on ＂Economic Revival＂ by showing off the number of sales orders and avoided cross-strait political position. Even though Taiwan citizens have very different perception on ＂1992 Consensus＂, they have the same expectations on ＂Economic Revival＂. Therefore, when ＂1992 Consensus＂ was repackaged by using economic vocabulary plus China factors, such as capitalistic or other economic means, to manipulate the public perception on ＂1992 Consensus＂ in Taiwan, the view of ＂Economics over Politics＂ had prevailed and influenced the county and city heads elections in 2018 to a certain degree. The 2020 presidential election will not deviate from ＂1992 Consensus＂ and ＂China Factors＂. Economics and sovereignty will still remain in the center of the election platforms and will influence how people vote.