- 期刊
Research on the Fluctuation of International Oil Price and It's Influence on the China's Economy
摘要
As the most important energy and chemical raw material in the world, petroleum is known as the ＂modern economic blood＂, and its price fluctuation has become an important factor in macroeconomics. Based on the monthly data of oil price, currency issuance, total social consumption, consumer price index and industrial production value from 2001 to 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of international oil price volatility on China's major macroeconomic variables. The study found that rising international oil prices will lead to an increase in domestic price levels and will affect household consumption levels through wealth effects and price effects. However, due to insufficient contribution of domestic consumption to economic growth, it does not ultimately have a negative impact on economic growth. Monetary policy can react quickly and exert its effects, but there is a dilemma. In order to cope with the inflationary pressure that may be caused by rising oil prices, it is necessary to adopt a tightening monetary policy, but this will cause the output to decline and thus inhibit economic growth. Therefore, in order to avoid frequent adjustment and overreaction of monetary policy, it is necessary to tolerate to some extent the impact of oil price shocks on the macro economy.