- 期刊
马哈迪政府对东海岸铁路项目决策研究──基于多元启发理论视角
A Poliheuristic Analysis of Mahathir Government's Decision Making on the East Coast Rail Link Project
摘要
2018年马来西亚大选后，马哈迪领导的希盟政府在对待东海岸铁路（以下简称东铁）项目的态度上出现了较大转折：从上任伊始雷厉风行地宣布暂停与审查，到后续重新与中国谈判，并最终达成新的协议使得项目复工。为什么马哈迪政府会先后采取暂停审查与谈判重启的政策？如何解释马哈迪政府对待东铁项目的决策转变？本文运用多元启发理论进行解释，认为马哈迪政府的两次东铁项目决策都是首先经由国内政治关键维度的认知筛选，然后对剩余方案进行效用最大化的理性选择。文章有力回击了西方媒体对于中国实施债务陷阱和新殖民主义的批评，强调马来西亚国内政治的重要性及其决策自主性。同时，中国在这一过程中给予马来西亚充分的理解和尊重，东铁从暂停到复工很好地体现了“一带一路”共商共建共享的原则。本文对2018年大选后马哈迪政府两次东铁决策的深入分析也能够对中国推进“一带一路”和海外投资提供重要启示。
並列摘要
Following the Malaysian General Election in 2018, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government, led by former prime minister Tun Mahathir Mohamad, the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project reached a turning point. Tun Mahathir initially announced the suspension and review of the project after taking office. However, he then sought to renegotiate with China and both nations finally reached a new agreement to resume the project. Why did the Mahathir administration made such policy choices on the ECRL project? This paper employs the poliheuristic theory to explain the Mahathir administration's shift in decision-making regarding the ECRL project. We argued that the Mahathir administration's policy decisions were initially filtered through the key dimensions of domestic politics before maximizing the utility of the remaining options. This paper strongly counters Western media's criticism of China's debt-trap and neo-colonialism objective using the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while emphasizing the importance of Malaysia's domestic politics and its decision-making autonomy. At the same time, we argued that China sufficiently understood and respected Malaysia in the entire process. The suspension, negotiation, and resumption of the ECRL project well embodied the BRI principles of extensive consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits. These findings have important policy implications for Chinese-funded overseas projects.