Research on Macro Policy Orientation and Risk Defense under Dual Cycle Strategy

Xiaodi Han ； Ruimin Zhang ； Yixuan Huang

《Frontiers in Economics and Management》 4卷4期 (2023/04) Pp. 269-279

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202304_4(4).0033

摘要

Under the intermittent recurrence of the epidemic, the uncertainty of economic risks has increased, and the economic cycle has been impacted. Unpredictable pro‐economic cycle policies will inevitably exacerbate macroeconomic instability. The 2021 government work report proposes counter‐economic cycle and cross‐economic cycle strategies, based on medium and long‐term macro policy formulation. Due to the fact that Chinese residents are less sensitive to interest rates, the role of spontaneous economic adjustment is relatively small, and policies need to be adjusted macroscopically through the central bank's monetary policy and credit policy. This paper first separates the cyclical factors and trend factors of the industrial added value from 2016 to 2022, and finds that under the impact of the epidemic in 2019, the economic cycle phase suddenly turned into a decline, and gradually changed to recovery after regulation. At the same time, based on the former's improved China Merrill Lynch clock theory, consider the macro policy, inflation level, financial environment, and internal and external balance factors to explain the fluctuation trend, analyze the current effect of my country's macro policy, and reduce sudden external shock fluctuations for the optimization of macro control. Put forward reasonable suggestions on risk‐resisting policies.

關鍵字

Merrill Lynch Clock ； Counter Economic Cycle ； Cross Economic Cycle ； Macro Policy ； Risk Defense

參考文獻

Nurullah Gür, Elmas Yaldız Hanedar, Avni Önder Hanedar. (2022) Democracy and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters 0:0, pages 1-7.

Wu Chenhao. Research on my country's Economic Cycle Based on Merrill Lynch's Investment Clock Theory [J]. Modern Economic Information, 2018(24):6-7.

Jiang Wei. Global Macroeconomic Cycle and Asset Rotation--Research on Merrill Lynch Investment Clock Correction from a Chinese Perspective [J]. National Circulation Economy, 2021(20): 3-7.

Chen Lei, Li Shuosuo. Research on the Selection and Optimization Strategy of Asset Allocation--Based on the Perspective of "Merrill Lynch Investment Clock" [J]. Financial Forum, 2022,27(06):64-73.

Wang Canhua. Financial Product Design Scheme and Enlightenment Based on the Improved Merrill Lynch Clock Analysis Framework [J].Bond, 2019(09):67-73.