- 期刊
評估塑膠在價值鏈中對全球環境的流失
Assessing the Loss of Plastics in the Value Chain to the Global Environment
摘要
隨著塑膠對海洋流入的日益關注，需要量化世界上塑膠的環境流失，並區分地理區域、聚合物和沿塑膠價值鏈發生的流失。本研究使用現有文獻、數據庫以及對流失的改進和其他方法建模，對整個塑膠價值鏈中塑膠對環境的流失進行全球估算。由此產生的流失估計在聚合物（23Mt）、塑膠應用（13Mt）、地理區域（11Mt）和塑膠價值鏈階段之間的詳細區分方面是空前的。還進行了綜合敏感性和不確定性分析，以確定塑膠流失方面的關鍵驅動因素。總體上發現，2015年大約有6.2 Mt的大塑膠（95％置信區間，CI：2.0-20.4 Mt）和3.0 Mt（CI：1.5-5.2Mt）的微塑膠流失到環境中。確定主要的大塑膠流失源自低收入和中低收入國家中的城市固體廢棄物（Municipal Solid Waste, MSW）的管理不善（4.1Mt）。對於微塑膠，主要來源是輪胎橡膠的磨損、道路標誌的磨損以及形成城市灰塵的塑膠。為了遏制塑膠流入海洋，需要像我們這樣的量化映射，以評估塑膠在不同來源和位置對環境造成的流失程度，並能夠進一步評估其對環境的破壞。通過我們的不確定性和敏感性分析，我們重點介紹進一步研究工作應該優先擺在塑膠來源，以便更全面、準確地表示全球塑膠流失。
並列摘要
With growing concern about plastic influx into the oceans, there is a need to quantify the world's environmental loss of plastic and distinguish among geographic regions, polymers, and losses that occur along the plastic value chain. This study provides a global estimate of plastic losses to the environment across the plastics value chain, using existing literature, databases, modeling of losses and other methods. The resulting leakage estimates are unprecedented in terms of detailed differentiation among polymers (23Mt), plastics applications (13Mt), geographic regions (11Mt) and plastics value chain stages. A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were also performed to identify key drivers in terms of plastic loss. Overall, approximately 6.2 Mt of macroplastics (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.0-20.4 Mt) and 3.0 Mt (CI: 1.5-5.2 Mt) of microplastics were lost to the environment in 2015. The major loss of large plastics is determined, due to poor management of municipal solid waste (MSW) in low- and lower-middle-income countries (4.1Mt). For microplastics, the main sources are tire rubber wear, road marking wear and plastics that form urban dust. In order to curb the flow of plastic into the ocean, quantitative mapping like ours is needed to assess the extent of plastic loss to the environment from different sources and locations, and that can further assess its environmental damage. Through our uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, we highlight the sources of plastic that should be prioritized for further research to provide a more comprehensive and accurate representation of global plastic loss.