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危機及變革管理──慈禧與「戊戌變法」
Crisis and Change Management-Empress Dowager Cixi and the Hundred Days' Reform
摘要
戊戌變法（1898年）是晚清的一場重要改革運動，由光緒帝與維新派推動，試圖透過政治、經濟、軍事與教育改革，使中國走向現代化。然而，變法僅持續103天即遭慈禧太后發動政變終止。從變革管理的角度來看，維新派的失敗不僅源於政治鬥爭，更反映了變革策略與執行的缺陷。針對慈禧面對的政權危機，本研究以危機管理DISCO原理視角加以探討；至於變革管理，則結合Lewin的變革三階段（Unfreeze-Change-Refreeze）與Kotter的變革八步驟，分析戊戌變法的推動與終結。Lewin的理論提供變革的宏觀結構，顯示維新派未能有效「解凍」舊有制度，變革尚未真正落實即遭終止；Kotter變革步驟則細緻的揭示維新派在建立緊迫感、形成聯盟、發展願景、推動行動、創造短期勝利等關鍵步驟上的不足。研究發現，維新派雖成功塑造改革急迫性，卻缺乏強大聯盟支持、未能動員軍事與官僚系統、缺乏可行的執行策略，並在改革初期無法創造短期勝利，導致變法迅速失敗。相對而言，慈禧運用更有效的變革策略，成功重新掌控局勢，並在變法失敗後推動「清末新政」，以較溫和的方式進行可控變革。透過變革管理相關理論，本研究提供歷史事件的另一解讀方向，並對政治與組織變革的管理策略提出啟示。研究結果顯示，成功的變革不僅需要強而有力的領導者，更需廣泛的政治支持、循序漸進的執行策略與制度化的保障措施，否則即便變革願景正確，也可能因戰略與執行不善而失敗。
並列摘要
The Hundred Days' Reform (1898) was a significant reform movement in the late Qing Dynasty, initiated by Emperor Guangxu and the reformists in an attempt to modernize China through political, economic, military, and educational reforms. However, the reform lasted only 103 days before Empress Dowager Cixi launched a coup to terminate it. From the perspective of change management, the failure of the reformists was not only due to political struggles but also reflected deficiencies in their reform strategies and execution. This study analyzes Cixi's response to the political crisis through the lens of the DISCO crisis management framework. In terms of change management, the study integrates Lewin's three-stage model (Unfreeze-Change-Refreeze) and Kotter's eight-step change model to examine the implementation and termination of the Hundred Days' Reform. Lewin's theory provides a macro-structural perspective, demonstrating that the reformists failed to effectively "unfreeze" the old system, resulting in an aborted transformation. Kotter's model further highlights the weaknesses of the reformists in creating a sense of urgency, building a guiding coalition, developing a vision, mobilizing action, generating short-term wins, and other critical steps. The findings suggest that while the reformists successfully created urgency for change, they lacked strong alliances, failed to mobilize military and bureaucratic support, lacked feasible execution strategies, and were unable to achieve short-term victories, ultimately leading to the rapid failure of the reform. In contrast, Cixi employed more effective change strategies, successfully regaining control of the political landscape and later implementing the "Late Qing Reforms," which introduced controlled and incremental changes. By applying change management theories, this study provides an alternative interpretation of this historical event and offers insights into the management of political and organizational change. The findings indicate that successful reform requires not only a strong leader but also broad political support, a step-by-step implementation strategy, and institutional safeguards. Without these, even well-intentioned reforms may fail due to poor strategy and execution.