- 期刊
中美战略竞争夹缝中的小国抉择：新加坡为个案的分析
Policy Choices of Small Countries amid China-U.S. Strategic Competition: A Case Study of Singapore
摘要
在中美战略竞争的背景下，小国传统的大国平衡战略日益遭遇挑战。本文以新加坡为个案，通过运用文献分析法与案例研究法，分析新加坡国际事务研究所、尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院，以及国防与战略研究所等三家主流智库专家近年针对中美战略竞争发表的代表性文献，研判新加坡对中美竞争的认知趋势、影响因素与未来走向。研究发现，新加坡战略学界对中美战略竞争呈现共识与分歧并存的多元政策认知图景，多数智库专家主张新加坡采取平衡外交政策，拒绝在中美之间“选边站队”，以便维护新加坡的利益。对于中美竞争的根源，新加坡战略学界存在“发展模式论”“权力转移论”“意识形态论”等三种认知，对中美关系的未来走向持有“潜在合作论”“有限竞争论”“军事冲突论”“战争升级论”等四种论断。考虑到中美战略竞争带来的负面后果，新加坡战略学界多数人士主张采取大国平衡外交政策、拒绝在中美之间“选边站队”——尽管这变得越来越难——以便维护新加坡与东盟利益的最大化。为更好地维护国家利益，中方应基于新加坡主流智库专家的相关研究研制更具针对性的应对之策。
並列摘要
In the context of China-U.S. strategic competition, the traditional approach to diplomacy among smaller countries towards major powers is encountering significant challenges. This article employs a case study approach to examine the literature on China-U.S. competition. It analyses publications on this topic by experts from three mainstream think tanks: the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), and the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS). The objective is to analyse Singapore's policy perceptions of China-U.S. strategic competition, the factors that influence these perceptions, and the future trajectory of these perceptions. The study revealed that Singapore's strategic community exhibits a multifaceted policy perception of the strategic competition between China and the United States. Most think tank experts advocate that Singapore should pursue a balanced diplomacy and refrain from taking sides between China and the United States in order to safeguard its national interests. In the context of the underlying causes of the Sino-American competitive dynamic there are three distinct theoretical perspectives in Singapore's strategic discourse, namely, "development model theory," "power transfer theory" and "ideology theory." With regard to the prospective trajectory of the competitive relationship, the Singaporean think-tank experts put forth four arguments: the "potential cooperation theory," the "limited competition theory," the "military conflict theory," and the "war escalation theory." In light of the potential negative consequences of strategic competition between China and the United States, most think tank experts in Singapore advocate a balanced approach to diplomacy among major powers, refraining from taking sides between the two powers. This is despite the increasing difficulty of maintaining such an approach, with the aim of maximising the interests of Singapore and ASEAN. To better safeguard its national interests, China should adopt a more precisely targeted strategy based on the findings of research conducted by Singaporean think tanks.