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兩岸海空事件處理機制初探：以中日海空聯絡機制為例
Preliminary Research on the possibility of establishment Incidents Prevention Mechanism on Air and Sea between the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area: A case study on "The Air-Sea Liaison Mechanism between China and Japan"
Abstracts
儘管現階段中共武力犯台的機率不高，但中共已大幅增加在台灣周邊、包括海峽中線以東之軍事活動的頻率與強度，使兩岸機艦發生海空事件的機率劇增，倘若處理不當，極可能迅速上升為軍事衝突，甚至引爆各方都未預期之戰爭。因此，建立「兩岸海空事件處理機制」，對兩岸都有一定的重要性；但兩岸由於政治關係緊張，衍生出包括「中共是否會將此一機制刻意與其『軍事安全互信機制』建立連結」、「適用範圍如何界定」和其他許多難以解決的困難。經過近11年的磋商，中共與日本在2018年6月8日正式啟用「中日海空聯絡機制」，初步建立在東海、特別是雙方防空識別區重疊區域內，軍用機艦遭遇時的具體規則，卻又迴避了敏感的釣魚台主權歸屬問題。「中日海空聯絡機制」雖然還有許多不足之處，但已經能對「兩岸海空事件處理機制」的建立帶來下列啟示：第一，可以使用「聯絡機制」或「處理機制」等名稱，降低政治敏感性；第二，對適用範圍採取模糊化處理；第三，可直接援引《海上意外相遇規則》的相關規定；第四，「中日海空聯絡機制」在談判過程中，採用的「兩步走」模式。
Parallel abstracts
Although the probability of the CCP's military invasion of Taiwan is not high at this stage; however, the CCP has greatly strengthened the frequency as well as intensity of military activities around Taiwan and the east part of the Taiwan strait medium line. This situation has drastically increased the possibility of "Air and Sea incidents" on both sides of the strait, if not being inappropriately managed, it is very likely to quickly escalate into a military conflict or even detonate a war which no parties will expect. Therefore, the establishment of a "Incidents Prevention Mechanism on Air and Sea between the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area" is of great importance for both sides of the strait; however, due to the tense political relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, many difficulties will have happened in the future, such as whether the CCP will deliberately link this mechanism with its "Mutual Trust Mechanism of Military Security", "how to define the scope of application" and so on. After nearly 11 years of consultations, the CCP and Japan officially launched "The Air-Sea Liaison Mechanism between China and Japan" on June 8, 2018. Preliminary establishment of specific rules for encounters between military aircrafts and ships in the East China Sea, especially in the overlapping areas of the air defense identification zones of the two sides, moreover it has avoided the sensitive issue of sovereignty over Diaoyu Taiwan. Even though the "The Air-Sea Liaison Mechanism between China and Japan" still has many shortcomings, it has brought the following enlightenment to the establishment of the "Incidents Prevention Mechanism on Air and Sea between the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area": first, names such as "liaison mechanism" or "Incidents Prevention mechanism" can be used to reduce political sensitivities; second, the scope of application can be temporarily put on hold to prevent disagreements; third, relevant provisions of the "Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea" can be directly invoked; fourth, the "two-step" model is adopted by the "The Air-Sea Liaison Mechanism between China and Japan" during the negotiation process.