- 期刊
- OpenAccess
我國軍用機場面對中共飛彈飽和攻擊之防禦戰術模擬想定
Defense Tactical Simulation Scenarios for Our Country's Military Airports against PLA's Saturated Missile Attacks
摘要
隨著兩岸關係日益緊張，發生軍事戰爭的風險越來越高。國內外軍事單位評估如果中共對臺灣發動戰爭，在戰爭初期中共火箭軍會發射東風飛彈癱瘓我國軍用機場，奪取制空權以利於後續作戰。本研究以系統動力學建立我國軍用機場面對中共飛彈飽和攻擊的防禦模型，並進行提升跑道維修能力、發射2倍飛彈攔截、派出戰機源頭打擊、發射飛彈源頭打擊四種軍事戰術想定。初期模擬結果發現我國軍用機場跑道可抵抗東風飛彈飽和攻擊約100小時；想定模擬結果發現發射2倍飛彈攔截是最有效果的戰術，派出戰機源頭打擊是最不合適的戰術。此外，比較4種戰術想定，加強防衛能力想定效果優於源頭打擊想定效果。
並列摘要
As cross-strait tensions escalate, the risk of military conflict continues to rise. Military units both domestically and abroad have assessed that in the event of a war launched by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) against Taiwan, the PLA Rocket Force is likely to launch Dong Feng missiles to cripple our country's military airports, aiming to gain aerial superiority for subsequent operations. This research employs system dynamics to establish a defense model for our country's military airports facing PLA's saturated missile attacks. The study evaluates four military tactical scenarios: enhancing runway maintenance capabilities, launching double-missile interceptions, deploying frontline fighter jet strikes, and conducting missile-based preemptive strikes. Initial simulation results indicate that our country's military airport runways can withstand Dong Feng missile saturation attacks for up to 100 hours. Subsequently, scenario simulations reveal that launching double-missile interceptions is the most effective tactic, whereas deploying frontline fighter jet strikes is the least suitable tactic. Moreover, among the four scenarios, the effectiveness of enhancing defense capabilities outweighs that of preemptive strikes.