- 學位論文
酒駕再犯風險特徵分析：以臺灣地方法院裁判書為例
Characteristics and Recidivism Risks Analyses of Driving under the Influence (DUI) Offenders: A Study of District Court Verdicts in Taiwan
摘要
本文收集2010年至2020年我國地方法院裁判書作為樣本，從中萃取有價值資訊，並結合Cox比例風險模型與羅吉斯廻歸模型等統計方法，期望探討歷次修法對於減少再犯行為的成效，以及影響酒駕行為人極短期內再犯的重要因子。 本研究探討的應變數有二：再犯時間間隔以及再犯機率，自變數則包含修法變數、處罰變數、酒測值變數、犯罪特徵變數，以及時間地理變數等五個種類。實證結果顯示，在修法成效方面，資料期間4次主要修法皆有效降低再犯風險，並以2019年施行的酒駕新法效果最顯著，本研究分析認為主要與累犯加重罰則、酒癮戒治與酒精鎖的實施有關；酒駕罰則施行方面，本研究發現刑期長度與再犯風險呈現負相關，罰金金額則無顯著影響。此外，易科罰金與緩刑之宣告有削弱刑罰成效的作用。對於極短極內再犯者，罰金則相對於有期徒刑有更好的嚇阻效果；酒測值方面則發現酒精濃度與再犯風險有著顯著的正相關；在行為人特徵方面，研究顯示無照駕駛、國中以下教育程度、騎乘機車者有較高的再犯風險；地理分區方面則以東部、南部為再犯的高風險區域。 此外，本研究亦驗證嚇阻理論中刑罰的「迅速性」因子，結果顯示刑罰實施速度愈快，再犯風險愈低。
並列摘要
This article collects and extracts valuable information from Taiwanese district court judgement documents in the period of 2010 to 2020 while utilizing various statistical tools such as the Cox proportional hazard model and Logistic regression model in the analysis of such data. The aim is to discuss the effects of previous legislation in the deterrence of recidivism and some crucial factors at play leading to drunk driving behaviors being committed again in a relatively short period of time. There are two dependent variables in this study: duration of compliance and recidivism rate. Independent variables include 5 categories: law amendment variables, sentencing variables, BAC level variable, drivers’ characteristics variables and demographic variables. The study shows that four major legislative amendments covered by the data achieved significant results with the new drink-driving law implemented in 2019 having the best effect. It is mainly due to the harsh punishment of recidivism, treatment of alcohol addiction and the use of alcohol interlock. In terms of penalty relating to drunk driving, this study finds that the length of prison terms are negatively related to recidivism. However, the punishment would be less effective as long as it can be commuted to a fine or probation. In addition, the study shows that people with high BAC levels, unlicensed driving, those with qualifications below junior high school level and motorcyclists correspond to higher rates of recidivism. It is also found that recidivism risk is higher in eastern and northern part of Taiwan. In addition, this study also proves that the celerity factor brought up in deterrence theory can effectively explain recidivist behaviour.