都市計畫與發展對農地價格之影響─以桃園航空城開發計畫為例

經濟蓬勃發展，農業相對衰退，臺灣的農地價格卻日益高漲。時值國土計畫功能分區劃設及後續配套措施規劃階段，未來農業用地如何配合國土計畫法作適度之分區調整，並確保農地不被轉變為非農業使用，均為中央與地方政府之重要議題。根據內政部營建署統計，2018年臺灣農地面積共93萬公頃，各直轄市、縣（市）國土計畫則規劃宜維護農業用地共約81萬公頃。為瞭解可建築用地增加的同時，農地價格將如何變化，本研究以桃園市航空城開發計畫為例，蒐集各行政區農地平均交易價格、人口密度及工商業家數資料，採用追蹤資料迴歸模型，分析農地交易價格是否會受到土地開發計畫及其他總體因素影響。本文資料蒐集範圍為2012年至2020年，共有108個觀察值。研究結果顯示，地區性的土地開發計畫會提高附近農地交易價格，但人口密度增加之地區農地交易價格卻會下降，顯示農地價格極易受到附近地區土地使用與都市化之影響。在國土計畫法施行並落實後，預期未來各種農業與非農業用地將按各地方政府所規劃之藍圖維持適宜範圍與面積，而農地價格攸關農業生產成本，農地價格高漲將成為臺灣農業發展之瓶頸。本研究建議在國土計畫規劃階段，農政單位應考量不同地區之特性與農地價格之關係，設計配套措施，讓農地回歸農業生產之附加價值，脫離房地產市場之投機炒作，才能真正實現農地正義。

關鍵字

農地價格；國土計畫；土地開發；追蹤資料迴歸模型；人口密度

並列摘要

As the agriculture declines amidst the prospering economy in Taiwan, farmland prices continue to rise. According to the newly revised Spatial Planning Act as well as complementary measures for the governance of land use, the authorities have established proper development plans for urban and rural land zoning to ensure that farmland will be converted to nonfarm use in accordance with the demarcation of functional zones in spatial plans of all levels. The 2018 statistics by Construction and Planning Agency of Ministry of the Interior show that among the total of 930,000 hectares of farmlands in Taiwan, 810,000 were designated for farmland use in the spatial planning for various municipalities, counties and cities. This study aims to investigate how farmland price changes as more land are available for conversion into construction uses by a case study of the Taoyuan Aerotropolis Development Project. Data of average transaction prices of farmlands, population density, and number of industrial and commercial companies in Taoyuan City are collected from 2012 to 2020. Panel data regression models are employed to analyze whether or not farmland’s transaction prices are affected by land development projects and other macro factors with a total of 108 observations. The empirical estimation results show that regional land development projects increase significantly the transaction prices of nearby farmlands. On the other hand, areas with increasing population density saw a drop in farmland transaction prices, indicating that farmland prices are susceptible to the land use and urbanization of the nearby region. As the industry and business continue to thrive in Taiwan, agriculture’s development could be affected negatively. With the establishment and implementation of Spatial Planning Act, we suggest that as the spatial planning act is implemented by the farmland administrative authorities, the local characteristics of different regions and how they affect farmland prices should be taken into account in order to formulate the complementary measures in advance. It is important to allow farmlands to be used for creating added values from agricultural production without falling prey to market speculation. Only by doing so can justice for farmlands be further realized.