鐵路立體化影響之分析: 基於不動產價格與縉紳化之觀點

Impact Analysis of Railway Grade Separation: The Aspects of Real Estate Prices and Gentrification

余柏諺(Po-Yen Yu)

指導教授 ： 許聿廷

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2024年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202403769

摘要

鐵路建設在過往研究中被證實不僅影響交通本身，還帶來其他潛在影響，例如土地價值的提升和縉紳化的可能性。臺灣政府在 2010 年前後積極倡導鐵路立體化工程，預期能提高安全性和經濟效益。然而，由於與交通設施更新相關研究的稀缺性，該議題對地方整體發展的貢獻一直存在爭議。因此，本研究旨在衡量分別採用了高架和地下鐵路系統的臺中和高雄的鐵路立體化建設對房地產價格和縉紳化的影響。為了釐清此計畫的影響，我們採用差異中之差異法模型來探討全域效果，利用馬可夫鏈和分層聚類來觀察村里變化，並從區域視角檢視縉紳化指標與車站距離的關係。我們觀察到這些鐵路立體化工程在不同區域、不同建造型態下影響範圍有所差異。研究顯示，臺中和高雄在計畫周邊的房地產價格上都經歷了顯著抬升。此外，高雄在計畫周邊村里的家庭收入有顯著上升，而臺中則未觀察到類似的縉紳化現象。此研究涵括全域至微觀的方法檢驗，其成果可作為政府評估政策可行性和未來計畫實施的參考。

關鍵字

鐵路立體化 ； 縉紳化 ； 差異中之差異法 ； 馬可夫鏈 ； 階層式分群法 ； 地理加權迴歸

並列摘要

The construction of the railways has been proven in previous studies to not only impact transportation itself but also bring other potential effects, such as the uplift of land values and the possibility for gentrification. Notably, the Taiwanese government has actively advocated the project of railway grade separation around the 2010s, anticipating to enhance safety and economic benefits. Nevertheless, there has been an ongoing debate surrounding the project’s contribution to the overall development of the locales, due to the scarcity of studies on the subject and the ambiguous benefits associated with the project related to the renewal of the transport infrastructure. Therefore, this study seeks to measure the impact of railway grade separation projects on real estate prices and gentrification in two cities in Taiwan, Taichung and Kaohsiung, which have adopted elevated and underground railway systems, respectively. To clarify the impacts of certain policies, we employ standard and spatial Difference-in-Differences (DiD) models to capture the effect on a global perspective, utilize the hierarchical clustering with Markov chains to observe the change in neighborhoods, and examine the relationship between gentrification indices and the proximity to stations on a local perspective. By comparing the DiD models for the two cities, we observe that these railways, serving different areas, have established their own geographic influence scales. The study reveals that both Taichung and Kaohsiung experience significant changes in real estate prices in nearby neighborhoods. Besides, the outcomes demonstrate that Kaohsiung exhibits a significant change in household income in nearby neighborhoods, whereas similar evidence of gentrification is not observed in Taichung. This study includes methods ranging from global to local examination, and its findings can serve as a reference for the government in evaluating policy feasibility and future project implementation.

並列關鍵字

Railway grade separation ； Gentrification ； Difference-in-differences ； Markov chains ； Hierarchical clustering ； Geographically weighted regression

參考文獻

Anselin, L. (1988). Lagrange multiplier test diagnostics for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Geographical analysis, 20(1):1–17.

Baker, D. M. and Lee, B. (2019). How does light rail transit impact gentrification? evidence from fourteen us urbanized areas. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 39(1):35–49.

Bardaka, E., Delgado, M. S., and Florax, R. J. (2018). Causal identification of transit-induced gentrification and spatial spillover effects: The case of the Denver light rail. Journal of Transport Geography, 71:15–31.

Barton, M. (2016). An exploration of the importance of the strategy used to identify gentrification. Urban Studies, 53(1):92–111.

Berg, C. N., Deichmann, U., Liu, Y., and Selod, H. (2017). Transport policies and development. The Journal of Development Studies, 53(4):465–480.