以「發展型國家」理論探討「十四五」規劃經濟發展之研究

中華人民共和國自1953年起實施第一個五年經濟發展計劃，過去完成斐凡成就，現在仍持續推陳出新，這說明了國家主導的經濟計劃對中國大陸的重要性。中共於2021年公布「國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃和2035年遠景目標綱要」，以雙循環為發展主軸，著重科技自主創新能力與擴大內部需求市場，加強戰略科技研發能量與供應鏈可控制能力，降低國外商品需求與重要零組件供應起伏的衝擊，期以此應對當前國際打壓圍堵、貿易保護主義、美中科技對抗等外在情勢，同時解決社會經濟發展不平衡等國內問題。從1960年開始，外界對東亞地區以及其他曾獲得經濟成功的後發展國家背後的因素進行分析，「發展型國家」理論即是一些學者的研究成果，其試圖解釋某些實行非市場經濟的後進國家為何能夠迅速崛起，並成為先進工業化國家。我們觀察中國大陸自改革開放後40餘年的崛起過程，可以看到其明顯有著發展型國家的特色，即後進國家與先進國家的技術鴻溝必須透過政府主導的發展策略來加以「追趕」。然隨著中國大陸經濟的降速與轉型，科技創新體制與發展大戰略的轉變，十四五規劃是否已讓其脫離「發展型國家」的傳統路徑。本研究得出的結論是，中國大陸和許多發展型國家相同，把產業政策做為推動經濟快速發展的核心工具，然發展迄今過去的理論似已難完整詮釋中國大陸經濟成長中的政府角色，且隨著成長趨緩及外界發出質疑，總書記習近平以「中國式現代化」概念回應，意圖打破現代化等於西方化，走出中國大陸自己的道路；此外人才不足、貧富不均、債務高漲等內部社會問題，都會是十四五規劃執行所面對的挑戰；最後依據二十大政治報告，和平統一仍是當前中共對臺灣的主要選項，且在國際「去中化」氛圍下，考量兩岸產業分工與合作長期已有相當基礎，兩岸合作看似為中共較優先的策略選擇。

關鍵字

發展型國家；十四五；五年規劃；中國大陸經濟發展；產業政策

並列摘要

The PRC has implemented the first five-year economic development plan since 1953. It has accomplished great achievements in the past and is still continuing. This shows the importance of state-led economic planning to Mainland China. In 2021, the Communist Party of China announced the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. It takes the dual circulation as the main axis, and it focuses on the ability of independent technological innovation and the expansion of the internal demand market. The controllability of the supply chain can reduce the impact of fluctuations in the demand for foreign commodities and the supply of important components, in order to cope with the current external situations and at the same time solve the imbalance in social and economic development and other domestic issues. Since 1960, some have analyzed the factors behind East Asia and other countries that have achieved economic success. The theory of "developmental state" is the result of the scholars. When we observe the rise of Mainland China over the past 40 years, we can see that it clearly has the characteristics of a developmental state, that is, the technological gap between backward and advanced countries must be "catch-up" through government-led development strategies. However, with the slowdown of the growth in Mainland China, the transformation of the technological innovation and the development strategy, whether the 14th Five-Year Plan has made it deviate from the traditional path of a developmental state. In summary, China, like many developmental states, uses industrial policy as the core tool to promote economic development. However, the past theory is difficult to fully explain the role of the government in China economic growth. As the growth slowed down and the doubts from others, General Secretary Xi responded with the concept of "Chinese path to modernization", intending to make China's own way. In addition, internal social problems will all be challenges for the 14th Five-Year Plan. Finally, according to the political report of the Chinese Communist Party, peaceful reunification is still the main option of the CCP for Taiwan. The cross-Strait economic collaboration has been going on for a long time, so cooperation with Taiwan seems to be a priority strategic choice for the CCP.