- 學位論文
國際航空業的市場評價與經營績效-華航與長榮航的實證研究
The Market Evaluation and Business Performance of International Aviation Industry in Taiwan-Evidence from China Airlines and Eva Co.
摘要
航空業進入門檻高，投入成本及資金規模相當大，且具深受全球內、外在環境影響。而台灣航空內需市場較小，受限於人口環境等因素，另有景氣、油價等總體因素，故本研究欲分析其市場評價及經營績效。 本研究採用的方法為縱橫資料模型，期間為2002~2019 年季平均資料，研究對象為國內兩大航空公司：華航及長榮航，研究其經營績效及市場評價以股價為代表。 市場評價部分：本研究實證模型下發現投資人對飛行架次與布蘭特原油價格之乘積、貨運噸數及新台幣兌美元匯率為負向相關，最主要原因仍是油價會對該產業影響甚大，還有主要計價貨幣單位的波動及客、貨運之間的排擠，這些總體經濟因素讓投資人會避免持有股票使其股價下降。對載運噸公里、景氣波動及油 價為正向相關，油價影響成本，調高票價及調整航班，全球化的擴張對營收有所挹注，景氣好大部分的投資人較為樂觀，願意多持有股票，符合直觀。我們可以觀察到航班往返的地區中，投資人比較偏向航班應多增加於亞洲地區。 經營績效部分：本實證研究模型發現與市場評價不同的是飛行架次與布蘭特原油價格之乘積對營收帶來正向相關性，推斷是航空公司對於獲利較高航線給予較頻繁班次並增加航班或調整票價，業者可透過轉嫁燃油附加稅予消費者，故為正向相關性。除此之外，新台幣兌換美元匯率、景氣波動及貨運噸數皆無明顯相 關性，因為航空公司皆會進行匯率避險，而全球化的擴張本就伴隨著營收成長，貨運噸數在其他航線無明顯相關性，僅對歐洲地區有正相關性，可以發現貨運在歐洲航線需求量較高。
並列摘要
The aviation industry has high entry barriers, considerable investment costs and capital scale, and deeply affected by the global internal and external environment. Taiwan Airlines has a relatively small domestic demand market, limited by factors such as the population、environment, and overall factors such as prosperity and oil prices. It is indeed difficult for airlines to survive. Therefore, this study intends to analyze its market evaluation and operating performance. The method used in this study is the Panel data model, and the period is the average data from 2002 to 2019. The target is the two major domestic airlines: China Airlines and Eva Airlines, to study their operating performance and market evaluation. Market evaluation part: Under the empirical model of this research, it is found that the product of the number of flights and the price of Brent crude oil, freight tonnage and the exchange rate of NTD/US dollar are negatively correlated. The main reason is that oil prices will have a great impact on the industry.There are also fluctuations in the main denominated currency units and crowding out between passengers and freight. These general economic factors make investors avoid holding stocks and make their stock prices fall. There is a positive correlation with the ton-kilometers, economic fluctuations, and oil prices. Oil prices affect costs. Increased fares and flight adjustments. Global expansion has a positive impact on revenue. Most investors in a good economy are more optimistic and willing to hold more. Stocks are consistent with intuitiveness. We can observe that in the areas where flights go to and from, investors prefer more flights to Asia. Operating performance part: The empirical research model found that the difference from market evaluation is that the product of the number of flights and the price of Brent crude oil brings a positive correlation to revenue. It is inferred that airlines give more frequent flights to routes with higher profits. To increase flights or adjust fares, the industry can pass on the fuel surcharge to consumers, so it is a positive correlation. In addition, there is no obvious correlation between the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar to the US dollar, business fluctuations, and freight tonnage, because airlines will hedge exchange rates, and global expansion has been accompanied by revenue growth, and freight tonnage is in other countries. There is no obvious correlation between the routes, and only positive correlation to the European region. It can be found that the demand for freight on European routes is high.