找尋政治二代選舉優勢的來源：以臺灣區域立委為例

政治家族與政治二代的存在是民主國家的普遍現象。臺灣選舉與民主化調查的網路調查指出，大眾對於政治二代普遍有著較差的觀感。然而，這些政治家庭出身的候選人，是否真的比起非政治家庭出身的候選人更具有優勢？本文以此為出發點，透過臺灣選制改革後，自2008年到2020年共四屆立法委員選舉的資料，藉由將候選人類型分為四類，來探究政治二代選舉優勢的來源。具體而言，本研究試圖檢證政治二代是否在提名與得票上享有優勢？實務上所採取的競選策略是否又會不同於非政治二代的候選人？首先，從量化資料的部分，本文發現政治二代身份的候選人會在得票率上有顯著地提升，且當選機率也較高。然而，而僅有地方派系背景的候選人，或是同時具有兩種身份的候選人，並不會在得票率或當選機率上有顯著性的影響。本文因證實政治二代確實是有優勢的，且會贏在終點線。其次，透過多個二分勝算對數模型，本文發現政治二代也贏在黨內競爭的起跑點，較容易透過競爭程度低的候選人選擇機制出線，且首次參選的政治二代也容易被政黨徵召或投入初選選區。換言之，政黨在候選人選擇的過程中，對於政治二代的候選人是較為優惠的。最後，透過質性資料的部分，本文發現政治二代確實在組織與知名度上享有優勢，但這並不會使他們採取較為不同的競選策略。在單一選區相對多數決制下，多數候選人還是強調陸戰與空戰的結合，以及強調候選人形象的塑造。同時，政治二代在競選過程中，容易因為背負家族過往的從政形象而受到更嚴格的檢驗。總結而言，本文認為政治二代的優勢來源最為重要的是在於政黨中的政治甄補的階段。在理論對話上，本文一來反駁了過去研究認為在臺灣的脈絡下，政治二代與地方派系有所結合的假定；二來則指出過去比較政治研究政治二代所使用的承繼而來的現任者優勢的概念必須有所修正。

關鍵字

政治二代；政治家族；地方派系；候選人選擇機制；競選策略

並列摘要

The existence of dynastic families and second-generation politicians is prevailing phenomena around the world’s democratic countries. Based on the result of an internet survey from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), the masses usually have negative perceptions toward the second-generation politician. Nevertheless, whether these dynastic candidates enjoy more advantages than non-dynastic candidates is the start point of this research. Through data of legislative elections from 2008 to 2020 after Taiwan’s electoral reform, this research separates candidates into four types to investigate second-generation politicians’ sources of electoral advantages. To be more specific, this research aims to verify whether second-generation politicians enjoy advantages in nominations and votes. Also, to examine whether they adopt campaign strategies that different from non-dynastic candidates or not. First of all, from the quantitative data, this research finds that second-generation politicians significantly have a higher percentage of votes and the probability of being elected. However, those candidates who only have local faction’ background or both two kinds of background do not have significant effects on the percentage of votes and the probability of being elected. Thus, this research verifies that dynastic candidates enjoy advantages exactly and wins in the terminal point of elections. Secondly, utilizing several binary logit models, this research discovers that dynastic candidates win at the starting point of intra-party competition. That is, they have higher probabilities to compete within parties using less competitive candidate selection methods. In other words, in the process of candidate selection, political parties are more favorable to dynastic candidates. Last but not least, based on the qualitative data, second-generation politicians indeed enjoy advantages from the organization from their predecessors and name recognition, but such kind of advantages will not make them adopt different campaign strategies. Under SMD, most candidates emphasize the combination of land warfare and air warfare, as well as the shaping of the candidate's image. Meanwhile, during the period of the campaign, dynastic candidates are more easily suffered strict examinations from the masses due to the label of their families. In conclusion, this research argues that the most crucial source of dynastic candidates lies in recruitment within parties. In terms of theoretical dialogue, this article refutes the assumption of past research that dynastic candidates and local factions combine in the context of Taiwan. Moreover, it points out that the concept of inherited incumbency advantage used in comparative studies must be revised.